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Nifty Targets and Trading Strategies for Monday, 20 April 2020

Nifty Targets and trading strategies with important levels, immediate support and resistance based on Elliott Wave Theory analysis by Deepak Kumar

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Nifty opened higher at 9323 and declined back just after opening to register day’s low 9091 but bounced back again to close 273 points up at 9266.

Friday, 8882-8724 was immediate support and 9582-9783 was strong resistance. Trading strategy was to buy Nifty in 8882-8724 range or hold longs with stoploss below 8724 for upside targets 9369-9582.

Nifty opened higher at 9323 but later trailing stoploss was triggered after breaking lower below 9132. Later, 9185-9238 was intraday resistance but same was broken before closing. Now, let’s have fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

 We are analyzing all time frames again and let’s start Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty with Monthly chart.

Table of Contents

Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Monthly Chart

Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Monthly Chart
Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Monthly Chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering its life time of move. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems major wave (1) completed from 775-6357, wave (2) may be completed from 6357-2252, wave (3) may be completed from 2252-12430 and major wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.

Pattern of wave (3) is not convincing but it is corrected by more than 38% so I am assuming wave (3) completed at 12430 based on its 38% retracement.

23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 10027-8542. 8542 is major downside breakeven point which is already broken and Nifty already traded below 8542 for 2-3 sessions.

Breaking and staying below 8542 is indicating signs of major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major long term resistance.

Further wave (3) is retraced deeper than 38% but we don’t have any other pattern right now, so I am still assuming the decline after 12439 as wave (4) unless wave (1) is overlapped. But further outlook will be calculated based on the pattern of decline after 12430.

So, let’s have a separate look at progress of major wave (4) started from 12430 to check its pattern.

Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart

Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart
Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is 5 hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after all time high 12430 which I marked as start of major wave (4) on monthly chart. Again there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

The decline seems impulsive with inner wave (i) completed from 12430-12087, wave (ii) may be completed from 12087-12246 as big irregular correction, wave (iii) may be completed from 12246-8555, wave (iv) may be completed at 10159 and wave (v) may be completed at 7511.

The impulse completed from 12430-7511 can be wave (A) or (C of Irregular Correction). 23%-38%-61% of this whole impulsive decline is placed at 8671-9390-10550 and same levels can act as resistance. Nifty already breached 8671 and now 9390-10550 can act as major resistance.

Now, let’s analyze the bounce after low 7511 to check its pattern and to calculate immediate levels.

Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 30 Minutes Chart

Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 30 Minutes Chart
Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 30 Minutes Chart

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 7511 which I am analysing independently. Again, there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 7511-9038, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 9038-8055 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.  Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 9582-9942.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) is completed and wave (v) may be in progress. Minimum 38% projection for wave (v) is placed at 9236 and same is already achieved. Next 61%-100% projection is placed at 9492-9906 which may or may not be achieved. 100% projection for wave (v) [9906] is a rare case.

23%-38% retracement of progress wave (c or 3) is placed at 9024-8839. So, 9024-8839 is immediate support and 8839 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 8839 and has possibility to bounce towards 9492-9582-9942.

But Nifty if breaks and stay below 8839 for more than 15 minutes can result in decline towards 8055-7511 again.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Monday, 20 April 2020 Onward

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Long Term

Nifty broke major downside breakeven point 8542, so there are cautions for major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major resistance now. We can be confident about major upside reversal after staying above 10027 only.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Medium and Short Term

9582-9942 is major resistance. Pattern of bounce after low 7511 is not showing strength, so most of the conditions are indicating decline towards 8055-7511 again from this resistance.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Intraday

9024-8839 is immediate support and 8839 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 8839 and has possibility to bounce towards 9492-9582.

But Nifty if breaks and stay below 8839 for more than 15 minutes can result in decline towards 8055-7511 again.

Trading Strategies of Nifty for Monday, 20 April 2020

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Nifty is still volatile and fear is there in market. We personally like to trade safe and doing hedged trades only. So, we are just suggesting most probable low risk trading strategies to give ideas, traders who want to take risk or can manage trades can use these levels and conditions to plan their own trade.

Calculated Risk can be taken to sell Nifty if get in 9582-9906 range with stoploss of 9951 (just above 9942) expecting decline towards 8055-7511 in coming days.

Nifty if breaks and stay below 8839 for more than 15 minutes then later bounce towards 8839-9024 can be used to sell Nifty with stoploss some points above 9024 expecting decline towards 8055-7511 in coming days.

Those who want to buy or holding any longs can use stoploss some points below 8839. Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 8839 and has possibility to bounce towards 9492-9582. But holding any overnight longs is risky now onward.

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