Nifty Targets and Trading Strategies for 17 August 2020

This Analysis report was posted on 16 Aug 2020 and was valid for 17 Aug 2020. Read Latest Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty

Nifty opened higher at 11353 and bounced further to register day’s high 11366 but declined back sharply by more than 250 points to register day’s low 11111 and closed 122 points down at 11178.

Friday, Nifty was expected to bounce towards 11364-11373 with intraday support at 11289-11270. But there was risk of small or big decline after achieving 11373. Further outlook could be calculated after reaching 11257-11185 range only.

Nifty opened gap up and upside target range 11364-11373 was achieved and then Nifty declined sharply by more than 250 points. 11171-11208 was updated as fresh immediate resistance after registering low 11111 and Nifty closed in resistance at 11178. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

We are analyzing Nifty on all time frames and let’s start Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty with Monthly chart.

Elliott Wave Theory Analysis on Monthly Nifty Chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering its life time of move. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems major wave (1) completed from 775-6357, wave (2) may be completed from 6357-2252, wave (3) may be completed from 2252-12430 and major wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.

Pattern of wave (3) is not convincing but it is corrected by more than 38% so I am assuming wave (3) completed at 12430 based on its 38% retracement.

38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 8542 and Nifty already traded below 8542 for 2-3 sessions. Breaking and staying below 8542 was indicating signs of major recession and 8542 but Nifty bounced back again.

Further wave (3) is retraced deeper than 38% but we don’t have any other pattern right now, so I am still assuming the decline after 12439 as wave (4) unless wave (1) is overlapped. But further outlook will be calculated based on the pattern of decline after 12430.

So, let’s have a separate look at progress of major wave (4) started from 12430 to check its pattern.

Elliott Wave Theory Analysis on Daily Nifty Chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after all time high 12430 which I marked as start of major wave (4) on monthly chart. Again, is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems an impulse completed from 12430-7511 and same can be wave (A) or (C of Irregular Correction). 61% of this whole impulsive decline is placed at 10550 and same was major resistance. Nifty gave good breakout above 10550.

From low 7511, it seems an (abc) wave completed from 7511-9889 but decline from 9889-8806 is also corrective (abc) and next wave bounced above 9889 again.

This (abc) bounce followed by (abc) decline followed by bounce is making the pattern complex. It can be progress of double zigzag correction with first (abc) cycle completed from 7511-9889, wave (X) may be completed from 9889-8806 and 2^nd (abc) cycle may be in progress.

Within 2^nd wave cycle, it seems wave (a) completed from 8806-10328, wave (b) may be completed from 10328-9544 and wave (c) may be completed at 11373 or still in progress. Wave (c) achieved normal 100%-123% projection placed at 11066-11425.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c) is placed at 10941-10674. So, 10941-10674 is major support and 10674 is major downside breakeven point. Nifty is in positive zone for short/medium term as long as trading above 10674.

But Nifty if close a complete daily candle below 10674 can result in bigger decline towards 9544-8806 again.

Now, let’s have separate look at declined after recent high 11373 on lowest possible time frame to calculate immediate/intraday levels.

Elliott Wave Theory Analysis on 15 minutes Nifty Chart

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after recent high 11373 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 11373-11242, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 11242-11366 and wave (c or 3) may be either completed at 11111 or still in progress.

There is confusion in pattern of wave (a or 1) but it doesn’t matter because the sharp decline from 11366-11111 looks like wave (c or 3) and our levels will be calculated based on (c or 3) only.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11171-11208. So, 11171-11208 is immediate resistance and 11208 is immediate upside breakeven point.

Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 11208 and can decline towards major support 10941-10674 if fails to stay above 11208. But Nifty if breaks and trades above 11208 for more than 15 minutes can result in bounce towards 11366-11373 again.

Nifty Targets and Important Levels for 17 Aug 2020 based on Elliott Wave Analysis

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Long Term

10941-10674 is major support and 10674 is short major downside breakeven point. Nifty is in positive zone for short/medium term as long as trading above 10674 but Nifty if close a complete daily candle below 10674 can result in bigger decline towards 9544-8806 again.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Short Term and Intraday

11171-11208 is immediate resistance and 11208 is immediate upside breakeven point. Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 11208 and can decline towards major support 10941-10674 if fails to stay above 11208.

But Nifty if breaks and trades above 11208 for more than 15 minutes can result in bounce towards 11366-11373 again.

Nifty Trading Strategies for Monday, 17 Aug 2020

Nifty can be sold if get in 11171-11208 range with exact stoploss of 11221 (some points above 11208) expecting decline towards 11111-10941-10674 in coming days. Actual stoploss is 11208 on 15 minutes closing basis.

Nifty if breaks and stay above 11208 for more than 15 minutes then trading strategy would be buying on Dips in 11208-11171 range with exact stoploss of 11159 (some points below 11171) expecting bounce towards 11366-11373. Actual stoploss will be 11171 on 15 minutes closing basis.