Nifty Outlook for 07 April Based on Elliott Wave Theory

Nifty outlook, important levels and trading strategies for 07 April 2020, Tuesday based on Elliott Wave Theory analysis by Deepak Kumar

Nifty opened higher at 8356 but declined after opening by about 300 points to register day’s low 8055 and closed 170 points down at 8083.

Friday, 8311-8381 was immediate/intraday resistance and 8094 was immediate support. Any further outlook could be calculated after break of 8381-8094 range on 15 minutes closing basis.

Nifty faced resistance in 8311-8381 range, registered high 8356 and declined to break below support 8094 but didn’t stay below 8094 for more than 15 minutes. So, Nifty traded in Support/Resistance range for whole day. Now, let’s have fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

 Now, we are analyzing all time frames again and let’s start Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty with Monthly chart.

Table of Contents

Elliott Wave Theory Analysis of Nifty on Monthly Chart

Elliott Wave Theory Analysis of Nifty on Monthly chart
Elliott Wave Theory Analysis of Nifty on Monthly chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering its life time of move. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems major wave (1) completed from 775-6357, wave (2) may be completed from 6357-2252, wave (3) may be completed from 2252-12430 and major wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.

Pattern of wave (3) is not convincing but it is corrected by more than 38% so I am assuming wave (3) completed at 12430 based on its 38% retracement.

23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 10027-8542. 8542 is major downside breakeven point which is already broken and Nifty already traded below 8542 for 2-3 sessions.

Breaking and staying below 8542 is indicating signs of major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major long term resistance.

Further wave (3) is retraced deeper than 38% but we don’t have any other pattern right now, so I am still assuming the decline after 12439 as wave (4) unless wave (1) is overlapped. But further outlook will be calculated based on the pattern of decline after 12430.

So, let’s have a separate look at progress of major wave (4) started from 12430 to check its pattern.

Elliott Wave Theory Analysis of Nifty on 5 Hourly Chart

Elliott Wave Theory Analysis of Nifty on 5 HourlyChart
Elliott Wave Theory Analysis of Nifty on 5 Hourly Chart

This is 5 hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after all time high 12430 which I marked as start of major wave (4) on monthly chart.

The decline seems impulsive with inner wave (i) completed from 12430-12087, wave (ii) may be completed from 12087-12246 as big irregular correction, wave (iii) may be completed from 12246-8555, wave (iv) may be completed at 10159 and wave (v) may be completed at 7511.

The impulse completed from 12430-7511 can be wave (A) or (C of Irregular Correction). 23%-38%-61% of this whole impulsive decline is placed at 8671-9390-10550 and same levels can act as short term resistance. Nifty already achieved 8671 and declined back.

Now, let’s have a look at pattern of bounce after low 7511 to calculate immediate outlook.

Elliott Wave Theory Analysis of Nifty on 15 Minutes Chart

Elliott Wave Theory Analysis of Nifty on 15 Minutes Chart
Elliott Wave Theory Analysis of Nifty on 15 Minutes Chart

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 7511 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems an impulse completed from 7511-9038 and same be marked as wave (a or 1) and wave (b or 2) may be in progress. 61% retracement for wave (b or 2) is placed at 8094.

But pattern of wave (b or 2) is tough to understand. There is repeated overlapping within wave (b or 2), so either wave (b or 2) is making complex correction or we are wrong at identifying the pattern. We can assume this declined after 8678 as progress of wave (b or 2) as long as 61% retracement 8094 is safe.

23%-38% retracement of last decline (from 8678-8055) is placed at 8202-8292. So, 8202-8292 is immediate resistance and Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 8292.

But Nifty if stay above 8381 for more than 15 Minutes can result in further bounce towards 8678-9038.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for 07 April 2020, Tuesday based on Elliott Wave Theory

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Long Term as on 07 April 2020

For Long Term, Nifty broke major downside breakeven point 8542, so there are cautions for major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major resistance now. We can be confident about major upside reversal after staying above 10027 only.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Medium and Short Term as on 07 April 2020

For short/medium term, 8671-9390-10550 can act as short term resistance. Nifty already achieved 8671 and further outlook can be calculated based on pattern of bounce after 7511.

Intraday Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Tuesday, 07 April 2020

For very short term and intraday, 8202-8292 is immediate resistance and 8292 is immediate upside breakeven point. Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 8292 and has possibility to decline below 7511.

But Nifty if stay above 8381 for more than 15 Minutes can result in further bounce towards 8678-9038.

Note: Pattern of decline after recent high 9038 is complex in nature so levels and outlook mentioned can change frequently because internal waves of Complex Correction can take any shape. Frequent revision of wave counts and important levels is needed in this case.

Nifty Trading Strategies for Tuesday, 07 April 2020

Nifty is still volatile and fear is there in market. We personally like to trade safe and doing hedged trades only. So, we are just suggesting most probable low risk trading strategies to give ideas, traders who want to take risk or can manage trades can use these levels and conditions to plan their own trade.

Nifty can be sold if get in 8202-8292 range with stoploss some points above 8292 expecting decline towards 7900-7511. Further risk management with trailing stoploss is needed after every decline because pattern of decline after 9038 is complex.

Nifty if breaks and stay above 8292 for more than 15 minutes then later decline towards 8292-8202 can be used to buy Nifty with stoploss some points below 8202 expecting bounce towards 8678-9038. Again, further risk management with trailing stoploss is needed after every decline because pattern of decline after 9038 is complex.

Trading strategies are based on immediate resistance 8202-8292 and this resistance is calculated with respect to Friday’s low 8055. So, this immediate resistance will change if Nifty registers new low below 8055.

Further, we will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.