Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Important Levels for 11 Nov 2019

| November 10, 2019 | 0 Comments

Nifty opened lower at 11888, declined to register low 11952 and bounced back to register high 12034 but declined back again to register day’s low 11889 and closed 103 points down at 11908.

Yesterday, Overall Nifty was in positive zone with 11801-11665 as short term support but a correction towards this support 11801-11665 was expected soon. Whereas 11955 was immediate downside breakeven point and Intraday bounce towards 12040 was possible.

Nifty took support at breakeven point 11955 and bounced till 12034 but declined back again by more than 140 points later. No trade was suggested during live market hours because overall there was risk of decline towards 11801-11665 but internal waves were indicating bounce towards 12040, plan was to sell after achieving 12040 but it decline from 12034. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [5] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave [iii] of [5] is completed at 11171 and [iv] may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave [v] may be in progress. Wave [iii] is not extended, so wave [v] needs to be extended. Minimum 61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 12689.

So, let’s analyse the progress of wave [v] started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.

This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave (v) of [5] on daily chart. Again, there is no chnage in wave counts on this chart.

The bounce from 10004-12103 is confirmed as (abc) because of overlapping of waves after break below 10985. Earlier we had 02 possibilities for this setup but possibility of Irregular Correction is almost negated because decline after 12103 doesn’t look like Impulse. Now, Ending Diagonal Triangle is most probable pattern for this setup.

So, the (abc) bounce from 10004-12103 can be inner wave (1) of ED and wave (2) of ED is either completed at 10637 as Simple Zigzag or still in progress as Complex Correction.

From 10637, it seems wave (a or 1) completed from 10637-11694, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 11694-11090 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11811-11673. So, 11811-11673 is short term support and 11673 is short term downside breakeven point. Nifty is in short term positive zone as long as trading above 11673 and any major downside reversal can be expected after break below 11673 only.

Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (c or 3) started from 11090 on separate lowest time frame.

This is hourly  time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11490 which I market as start of wave (c or 3) on daily chart.

It seems wave (1), (2), (3), (4) is completed and (5) is in progress from 11490 as marked on chart. Wave (5) achieved 61% projection after break above 11875 and next 100% projection is placed at 12114 which is a rare case.

Within wave (5), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) is completed till 11785 and wave (v) may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 12040-12158, so 12040-12158 is minimum target range for completion of wave (v).

Now, let’s analyze the progress of wave (v) separately on lowest possible time frame.

This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11850 which I marked as stat of wave (v) of (5) on hourly chart.

It seems an Impulse completed from 11850-11021 and later there is possibility of Irregular Correction within inner wave (a) completed from 12021-11946, irregular wave (b) completed from 11946-12034 and wave (c) may be in progress.

But it is tough to say if this Irregular Correction started from 12021 is for the Impulse started from 11850 or for the bigger Impulse started from 11490. So, we need to concentrate on internal pattern of wave (c) of Irregular Correction started from 12035 to calculate next outlook.

Within wave (c), it seems inner wave (a or 1) completed from 12034-11959, wave (b or 2) completed from 11959-11989 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11912-11927. So, 11912-11927 is immediate resistance and 11927 is immediate upside breakeven point. Breaking and staying above 11927 for more than 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 11989-12031.

Otherwise, Nifty can decline further towards 11811-11673 if fails to stay above 11927 for more than 15 minutes.

Conclusion

Long term/Medium term outlook is not clear because there are Multiple Possibilities on Charts. We can make guesses but confident outlook can’t be calculated. Overall there is possibility for bounce above 12103 without breaking below 10004 but this possibility can’t be used for trading practically. So, we need to concentrate on small internal patterns and Intraday Levels for trade planning.

For short term, Nifty is in positive zone for short term with 11811-11673 is short term support and 11673 as short term downside breakeven point. We can think of any major reversal after break and stay below 11673.

For Intraday/Very short term, 11912-11927 is immediate resistance and 11927 is immediate upside breakeven point. Breaking and staying above 11927 for more than 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 11989-12031.

Otherwise, Nifty can decline further towards short term 11811-11673 if fails to stay above 11927 for more than 15 minutes.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

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Short term support is at 11811-11673 which is far away, so we can think of any positional trade after reaching major support 11811-11673 only.

For Intraday, Nifty if breaks and stay above 11927 for more than 15 minutes then later decline towards 11927-11912 can be used to buy Nifty with exact stoploss of 11903 expecting 11989-12034 as minimum upside target range.

Intraday Selling can also be done if Nifty completes a upside corrective pattern in 11912-11927/resitsnace range but trade can be decided during market hours only after confirmation from the pattern.

Further, We will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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