Save Money for Next Bull Rally of 1200-1800 points in Nifty

| March 26, 2015

Nifty opened huge Gap down today but failed to fill Gap after opening and decline 200 points from previous close end of the day. Till yesterday I was expecting the possibilities for some bounce from 8497 -8474 range seeing chart structure. But I was not confident for buying as nifty didn’t show the sign of reversal yet.

Today gap down open below 8474 and failed to cover Gap after opening negated previous pattern I was assuming. Unfilled gaps are only within wave 3 and there is always a sharp and fast move during wave 3 which Nifty shown today.

This move I expected some days before but Nifty slower down in 8540 -8600 range. And now, Nifty covered that move in single day today. Now, there is some clarity in medium term charts. Let’s have a look.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty after march expiry

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty after march expiry

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 2013 low of 5118 which I am expecting as start of inner wave 3. This chart I explained many times in my previous report Nifty Updates and Elliott Wave Analysis for March 2015

Here, inner wave (3) of 3 is completed at 8996 followed by start of wave (4) which is an irregular correction. Inner wave (v) of (3) is Ending Diagonal Triangle and highly extended which I explained many times in my previous reports. Wave (4) started from 8996 can end somewhere between 23% to 38% retracement of (3) which is placed at 8273 to 7825. Wave (4) can also end above 8273 but we can always expect wave 4 to break below lower line of Ending Diagonal Triangle as Correction after Ending Diagonal Triangle often breaks line joining its inner wave 2 and 4. The actual levels can be calculated only when this wave really completes and these are just estimated levels.

Let’s see progress of wave (4) started from 8996 on separate hourly chart.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for April Expiry

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for April Expiry

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering move after Feb high 8996 which I am expecting as start of wave (4).

It seems, wave 4 is progressing as complex correction (most probably Triple Zigzag) and we still needs confirmation for it. There is a “abc” wave from 8996 to 8473 followed by an Irregular wave (X1) from 8473 to 9117 and there is a start of next “abc” cycle from 9117 which is in progress and already breached the end of 1st “abc” cycle after breaking below 8473.

In 2nd “abc” cycle, waves (a) and (b) are completed and (c) achieved minimum 61% projection at 8475 whereas 100% and 123% is placed at 8283 and 8163 respectively which may or may not be achieved.

Let see today’s move on 5 minutes chart:

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for April Expiry

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for April Expiry

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering last hour’s move of Nifty. Today’s decline was steep in single line and it was expiry, so wave counts are not clear. So, I would like to wait for tomorrows move to predict next scenario as I am not able to conclude something confident from today’s move.

Structure on chart at closing is suggesting some bounce from 8342 tomorrows but open below or break below today’s closing 8342 may show new low again.

Conclusion:

I am not able to conclude anything confident on short term chart because of steep decline. May be tomorrow charts will show something. It is not a deficiency of an analyst but it is a nature of Market. Market is not always easy and there are some time periods when it is difficult to read market. We must keep patience in tough time and wait for safe opportunity, sooner it will show the pattern.

On Medium Term, Nifty is progressing in Complex Correction Pattern and there may be good upside rally of 1200 to 1800 points after completion of this correction. But expect some volatile and confusing moves in between this correction. So, limit your trading, focus on intraday trading and trading with strict small stoploss in next sessions till completion of wave (4).

Never lose your capital unnecessary and save it for next big upside rally which will be easy to trade for big targets with great risk reward. And this opportunity will come soon, just have patience and save your money from volatile/confusing moves till then.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (30)

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  1. jagadeesh says:

    My analysis of nifty is pointing out impulsive wave count completed(wave 5) at 9119 and what we see now is larger corrective wave 2 which can unfold as abc zigzag with target of below 8269 probably by may 2015. The current move upside if the wave count is correct is close to 8800 provided 8630 is taken out on closing basis next week.

  2. Leo says:

    unfortunately people will learn the hard way everyone is going long at the wrong time.

  3. saffron84 says:

    Sir.. really cool analysis of charts they definitely shows upside but other side of story which is more possible if april earnings worst than street expectations we may see larger sell-offs, and romours liquidation may come true.. another possibility if governance brings hopes for better 2016 we may see new higher levels too..
    this month is break or make for retailers play safe.. i did saw some other charts of hindalco, wockkhardt, sbi, icici bank, canara bank, ongc, they all show fall or correction is possible near future they all are moving back 2013 levels.
    if you see last time wockhardt was above 2000 it was booked heavily and taken to 400 levels..i think we are heading towards 7700..

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Saffron84,
      I can’t comment on any fundamental issues as I never follow any news, fundamentals, important events, data or any other technical indicator. I just follow Elliott Wave Theory and waves will tell what is there in store. Till now, below 7825 looks difficult.

  4. adwait says:

    Dear sir
    I am a student of Neo wave analysis, and i have a querry regarding this count you are taking digonal or terminal impulse in your (3). so according to the rules it must be retraced fully.that is it must go below 7215 from where your 1st wave started.please throw some light on this.

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear adwait,
      What you cal a terminal wave is an Ending Diagonal in my Elliott Wave Terminology. Based on my observations of last 4 years, An Ending Diagonal need not to retrace 100% if it is an inner wave of higher degree wave 3. Yes, we can always expect next correction to break below the line joining inner wave 2 and 4 of an Ending Diagonal.

      Otherwise, this ED as inner wave V of 3 is also highly extended, and extended wave 5 also retrace 100%. But here again, extended 5th wave need not to be retrace 100% if it is a part of wave 3 of higher degree.

      Third, Every correction have internal structure which indicates how much correction may be there after calculating inner waves. Progress of this decline after 9117 is not suggesting any bigger correction till 7215 yet. And chart will show a pattern if it is really going to happen.

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Mr. Shailesh. I answered you query 2 days back but you didn’t get back. I mentioned in my reply that I am going to delete your comment as you didn’t used correct English in your comments. You used short words in you comments like “yu”. This incorrect English is not good for my website reputation. I am going to delete this comment again as you still using the same form of English. Answering you query is secondary part, First I value my website reputation. Please get back immediately to check reply because I am going to delete your comments again because of incorrect English.

  5. amit says:

    “as correction after ed after break its wedge ” this sentence doesn’t make sense ,its also incorrect english.

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Thanks Amit for pointing out. It is actually a typing mistake. The actual Sentence is “as correction after ED often break its wedge ”. I will correct it.

      • Rahim Moti says:

        Sir can we see nifty in a new rally as we are out of wedge now. Or again we will get in wedge and make a new low as. As you have shown it’s triple zig zag correction.

  6. rashmi says:

    Dear Deeapak,I am sorry that I too have been using short forms of words and thus not observing the integrity of your website.It shall not be repeated in future.
    Warm regards

  7. rashmi says:

    good show!ur analysis on spot,gap up open with new low that too around8269,close to ur levels.plz post the next moves,can v go straight up or resist at 8550 or so.
    warm regards

  8. RAMASWAMI N says:

    SIR can we expect a pullback rally from here.

  9. Tushar Thete says:

    Deepak Sir,

    If a=c then 8788-(9119-8612)=8281 is the end of c? How do I treat this juncture? Will c drain more…? how to identify the reversal?

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      There is no mandatory rule that a=c. C can go anywhere. And There are wave’s cycles, wave Patterns and wave personalities to identify reversal. And charts will show the reversal when it really happen. Only God can predict in advance.

      • Tushar Thete says:

        Plz shed some light on wave’s cycles, wave patterns and wave personalities to identify reversal as per ur free time.

        Thank you

        • Deepak Kumar says:

          It can not be explained in a single paragraph. I have written a whole book on it of 32000 words. It is impossible to explain here. Read my reports if you can understand.

          • Tushar Thete says:

            Yes…goin thru with ur reports. Will reach out to you for better understanding.

            Thank you

  10. rashmi says:

    sir,8277 done,now lower down?

  11. RAJIV NIKAM says:

    monthly charts
    wave1 = 2200 to 6289
    wave2 = 6289 to 4540 sideways took 15 months 38.2%
    wave3 = 4540 to 9119
    wave4 = 9119 to 8060 23.6% 7373 38.2% 6850 50% 6300 61.8%
    wave 4 furious and quick

    • RAJEEV MITTAL says:

      wave ending at 9119 is 3rd wave of bigger 3rd so wave 4 will correct smaller 3rd which begin from 5118 then it will go for 5th of 3rd

      • Deepak Kumar says:

        If I am right at identifying then it should correct only inner wave (3) of bigger 3 and wave (3) is started from 5933, not 5118. And 3rd wave is completed at 8996 as per the counts I shown. 9117 is the part of Irregular Corrective wave 4.

        • Rajeev mittal says:

          yes 9117 is a part of irregular correction I read somewhere that when irregular correction is complete than a big bull run will begin how can we know that correction is over

          • Deepak Kumar says:

            It can be identified by identifying inner waves of this correction. Completion is not confirmed till now. Charts will show when it is going to complete, it is early to expect in advance. But is very rare for Nifty to break below 7825.

  12. sanjeev jha says:

    my dear , pl tell if 9119 was a B wave high of irregular correction then nifty should come down in C wave?
    Is it possible for an X1 wave to go higher than starting point of correction?

  13. rashmi says:

    Thanks Deepak for the swift reply.

  14. Leo says:

    sorry its not wave 4 it is wave 1 of C .World is about to correct and there could be a currency shock to 83 INR.