Outlook of Nifty on Union Budget 28 Feb 2015

| February 22, 2015

Most of the analysts and traders are excited about outlook of Nifty on Union Budget 2015 scheduled 28 Feb 2015 and I am getting number of requests from my clients and followers to share my Elliott Wave view for the budget week.

As usual, I never follow any news, events, global factors or global market and my analysis reports are purely based on Elliott wave theory. So, let me show what is there for Nifty on charts based on Elliott wave counts so that we can conclude probabilities and outlook of Nifty on Union Budget 2015. Let’s start with the medium term chart.

Outlook of Nifty on Union Budget 28 Feb 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave counts showing Outlook of Nifty on Union Budget 28 Feb 2015

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after all time high 8996. This chart shows that a corrective (abc) wave is completed from high 8996 to low 8473 followed by a upside bounce 8913.

The upside bounce from 8473 to 8913 doesn’t looks like a convincing clean impulse (will show on next chart) which further suggest the possibilities that this upside move may be a corrective wave and one more decline below 8473 is still pending as I explained in my last analysis report and there are rare possibilities for Nifty to break all time high in near term in this case.

Let’s have a closer look on upside move from 8473 to 8913.

Nifty Elliott Wave counts showing Outlook of Nifty on Union Budget 28 Feb 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave counts showing Outlook of Nifty on Union Budget 28 Feb 2015

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after recent low 8473.

I am not seeing this upside wave as clean impulse because if I take 1st upside move as wave 1 and next decline as wave 2 (shown as (1st abc) and (X1) on chart) and next upside move as wave 3 then even inner wave (i) of 3 took double time than wave 1 which is not normal for wave 3. Wave 3 is often faster than wave 1 but here even inner wave (i) of 3 slower than 1. See the move within light blue boxes shown on chart.

In my previous report I explained the possibilities for the up move started from 8473 as Triple Zigzag Correction where (abc -x -abc –x) seems completed and last (abc) was in progress as shown on chart. And completion of this Triple Zigzag correction may be confirmed after break below lower line of wedge (line joining X1 and X2). Generally price doesn’t enter the wedge again after breaking the line joining X1 and X2 in Triple Zigzag.

But Friday, Nifty broken the line joining X1 and X2 by just fraction of points and enter in the wedge again for sometime followed by break below the line again and closed below the line as shown within the circle.

So, here Nifty created a very small doubt if it is Triple Zigzag or not. Or if wave (X2) is completed or not as first break was just by fraction of points. So, we need to be careful here before seeing it as breakout of Triple Zigzag.x

But, no matter if this move is a Triple Zigzag or something else; there are still cautions for decline below 8473 because of wave’s formation at bottom where 2nd move is slower than 1st move.

Let have a look on latest move of Nifty on 5 minutes chart:

Nifty Elliott Wave counts showing Outlook of Nifty on Union Budget 28 Feb 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave counts showing Outlook of Nifty on Union Budget 28 Feb 2015

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering latest move of last 2 – 3 sessions. The move till latest low 8794 is clear as Irregular correction as shown on chart and as I identified in advance in my previous analysis report Nifty can decline below 8800 before 8895 – EW Analysis of Nifty for 19 Feb 2015 but I am unable to identify waves within sharp move from 8794 to 8913 marked in light blue box.

So, it is difficult to count waves within move after sharp rise from 8794 to 8913 because of steepness followed by overlapping. Tomorrow’s opening and further move may give any clear sign of very short term trend.

Outlook of Nifty on Union Budget 2015

Though, most of the analysts and majority of traders are expecting positive outlook of nifty on Union Budget scheduled 28 Feb 2015 but whole scenario on charts are still warning cautions for decline below 8473 in near term. So, any long positions without strict stop loss should be avoided and shorts can be taken with small stop loss after identifying smaller wave patterns on 5 minutes chart during live market hours.

Nifty may be volatile this week due expiry and Union Budget on 28 Feb 2015, so be careful with big trades.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (6)

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  1. sathis says:

    i fully agree with your view–market is ripe for a fall

  2. KAMAL KANT says:

    Dear Deepak,

    Any further movement of Nifty till the budget? Please share your study

    Thanks

  3. ashok says:

    after triple zigzag what is the wave count if breaks 8473? and will it test 7960 0r 7724?

  4. rashmi says:

    thnx deepak.anything in nifty?

  5. rashmi says:

    sir sgxnifty on ur site showing as 8807 but on sgxnifty.org its 8736.Which should we consider real?