Nifty Updates and Elliott Wave Analysis for March 2015

| March 1, 2015

The budget is over and this is first Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty after budget 2015. Nifty is moving in complex pattern from last 02 weeks and given good volatile move on budget day with 190 points swing both side. Many of my followers and students are asking, why I am cautions in Nifty for decline below 8473 again. Though I explained many times in my previous report but will try to explore possibilities again. Let’s have a look on bigger chart first.

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for March 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for March 2015

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering Nifty move after 2013 low of 5118. I explained this chart many time in my previous Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty which shows wave 3 seems completed at all time high 8996 where inner wave (5) of 3 was Ending Diagonal Triangle which completed from 7118 to 8996.

Here, wave 4 didn’t completed 23% retracement of wave 3 yet which is at 8273. Though it is not necessary that wave 4 compulsory needs to correct 23% but we can’t ignore the normal possibilities as wave 4 usually corrects 23%-38% of extended wave 3.

2nd, inner wave (5) of 3 was Ending Diagonal Triangle and next correction didn’t break the lower line of Triangle yet. Again it is not compulsory but we can’t ignore the general possibilities as correction after completion of Ending Diagonal Triangle often breaks the line joining inner waves 2 and 4.

3rd, we generally see the correction after completion of Ending Diagonal Triangle at least till the start of its last inner wave (c) of 5. (c) of 5 started in the this ED from 8066.

These are some possibilities which we can’t ignore. So, we need to concentrate on smaller move till we identify any clear pattern on bigger time frame. Let’s have a look on the whole decline after high 8996.

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for March 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for March 2015

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after all time high 8996. This chart also I am explaining in my every previous Elliott Wave analysis report of Nifty. The move from 8996 to 8473 is definitely an “abc” correction but the bounce after 8374 which achieved 8940 till now is not a convincing impulse. Still there are possibilities that this bounce may be wave (x) and one more “abc” wave below 8473 is still pending.

So, there is always a caution till we identify a convincing bullish pattern or till Nifty is trading below 8996. That is the reason why I am concentrating on Intraday and very short term moves only for trading. There are no clear indications for positional views yet.

Let’s have a look on 5 minutes chart of Nifty now,

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for March 2015 on 5 minutes chart

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for March 2015

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after recent low 8670 of 26 Feb 2015. It seems an impulse is completed from 8670 to 8940 which can be wave (1 or A) followed by a corrective decline till 8752 which can be wave (2 or B). And next impulsive (3 or C) is started from 8752.

Most probabilities are suggesting this move as “abc” rather than “1,2,3” seeing the previous wave’s structure. But if these waves are “1,2,3” then there must be a very big and quick move upside that can   500 to 700 points up in very quick time.

Wave (3 or C) already achieved its minimum projection of 61% where as top of wave (1 or A) is 8940 which is likely to achieve in next session and 100% is placed at 9022.

And it seems, wave (3 or C) is somewhere within inner wave 3 as labeled on chart which suggest some more upside in next session.

Conclusion:

Nifty latest charts are suggesting some more upside till 8940 or above but possibilities of good decline from higher levels can’t be ignored. I said “cautions for decline” doesn’t means to sell blindly. Cautions means, you must be careful with your longs and never carry any big overnight position as the decline in these conditions is often quick with gap downs.

So, trade light and trade with strict stoploss till we find any clear positional pattern. Follow sell on rise whenever you see bearish wave’s pattern on chart on 5 minute chart.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (2)

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  1. ashok says:

    nifty made new high. but appears to be slow and hence B wave? CAN YOU CLEAR MY DOUBT?