Nifty Updates and Elliott Wave Analysis for 15 April 2015

| April 14, 2015

This Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty is the further update of Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty I posted on 12 April 2015 where I mentioned Nifty can show 8620 without breaking above 8851- Elliott Wave Analysis on 12 Apr 2015. I am posting update as Nifty is already near my suggested stop loss of 8851 and must follow up this analysis for my followers.

Nifty opened Gap up on Monday and traded in huge volatility with positive bias for rest of the day. Nifty declined 40 points sharply from 8827 but bounced again to hit new high of 8841. Finally Nifty closed 53 points up after giving low of 8763 and high of 8841. Let’s proceed to analyze latest charts.

I am showing wave counts after latest low 8269 only as there is no change in previous counts explained in Monday’s report Latest Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty for All Time Frames on 05 April 2015.

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for 15 April 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for 15 April 2015

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after last low 8269 which I am expecting as a start of an impulse.

It seems, it is wave 3 which completed at 8692 followed by 23% correction till 8587 for wave 4. And there is a start of wave 5 from 8587. Wave 5 already achieved its minimum projection of 38% where as 61% and 70% is placed at 8848 and 8883 respectively which may or may not be achieved. Let’s look at wave 5 closely on 5 minutes chart.

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for 15 April 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for 15 April 2015

Let’s see wave 5 closely on 5 minutes chart for separate calculations:

This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 8587 which I am expecting as start of wave (5). And this is the main wave must be focused on.

It is very difficult to identify the inner waves of this move for me. There is lots of repeated overlapping within this wave making it more difficult to conclude anything. I just tried to label the waves within this move keeping in mind the Wave’s personalities and Fibonacci calculations but these counts lacking confidence.x

By these counts, May be wave (iv) of (5) is completed at 8701 as Irregular Correction followed by start of wave (v). Wave (v) already achieved 61% projection and entered in extended zone whereas 100% is placed at 8873.

Within wave (v) of (5), may be inner waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 of (v) are completed and 5 is in progress. But again, 5 goes highly extended here which is disturbing my confidence with the counts again.

Try to count the inner waves of this move yourself, may be you find something better which I am not able to identify.

Conclusion:

The set up on charts which I am seeing warns some correction/decline (small or big) but it is difficult for me to calculate exact top because of wave’s cycles.  Based on Fibonacci Calculation, Nifty will be in extended zone after breaking 8848 which again warning sharp correction.

In my last report I suggested that Nifty may not break much above 8848 and may decline till 8620. Fibonacci Calculations are still supporting the same view but there is no clue from wave’s cycles. I personally entered shorts at 8826 spot (8700 Put) but exited end of the day in small loss because of confusion. I will sell again only after seeing downside trigger with small stop loss, otherwise will wait for clear direction.

Important Note:

Nifty is at the stage where it needs to give a reasonable correction of 38% to 61% or may move higher aggressively. Please trade with strict stop loss. Personally, I am still feeling the possibilities of new low again in medium term. The best strategy would be to trade with small stop loss after identifying small pattern followed by trailing stop loss.

Tags: , ,

Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (10)

Trackback URL | Comments RSS Feed

  1. Arun says:

    sir really superb. With the help of you somehow. I m also predicting. thanks lot.

  2. TBNDB says:

    Nice one Mr. Deepak. Perfect 8851 stop & from there free fall in 20 minutes.

  3. karthik says:

    Hi Deepak ji really nice updating for nifty and bnf and give more updates.

  4. dada says:

    Dear Deepak ji I m your big fan.and always follow your theory and satisfied also.i want to study your Elliott wave theory.plz.guide me
    . thanx

  5. Rakesh Singh says:

    Above 8875 for 45 mins Bullish and below 8825 Bearish.

  6. rajveer says:

    Best to be two sided in this market, straddle or strangle to capture volatility on both sides.

  7. Rajan says:

    15 apr spot…8854(61) abv….8903

    8820 below…8792-64….8729-(8694)

  8. ak says:

    Nifty breaked above target 8934
    We r in falling channel

  9. NIFTY SWISER says:

    HI DEEPAK JI I DO CHECK YOUR WEBSITE EVERYDAY… AND I AM ALSO WORKING IN MARKET WITH MY OWN SYSTEM STRATAGIES. AND MY VIEW IS SAME FOR THE FALL WITH STRICT SL OF 8872 CASH NIFTY TOMORROW. IF MARKET DONT CROSS 8864.40 TILL 9.30 THAN SELL STOPLOSS WILL BE 8872 BUT IF IT CROSS 8864.40 THAN SL WILL BE AT 8889 . WE ARE ALSO HOLDOING SELL FROM TOMORROW. LETS HOPE THE BEST. AND THANKS FOR YOUR UPDATES. IT GIVES SOME HELP. THANKS A LOT.

  10. sathis says:

    surely this month nifty may break 8620 also and fall further