Nifty Updates and Elliott Wave Analysis for 09 July 2015

| July 8, 2015

Nifty opened huge gap down today at 8439 and traded with weakness after a small bounce back till 8457. Nifty corrected almost 170 points from previous close and almost achieved my first target of 8330 mentioned in yesterday report. Finally Nifty closed 147 points down at 8363 after giving high of 8457 and low of 8341.

Nifty decline sharply as I was expecting in my last 3 reports that Nifty trading above 8493 have the possibility of sharp decline till 8195 and also suggested to avoid longs and follow “Sell on Rise” trading strategy. Let’s have a look on latest chart.

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for 09 July 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for 09 July 2015

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after June 2015 low of 7940. It seems an impulse is completed from 7940 to 8561 with extended inner wave 5. We can expect normally 38%-61% retracement after completion of an impulse which is placed at 8323-8177.

On the other hand, wave 5 is extended and we normally see sharp and 100% retracement of extended wave 5. Wave 5 was started from 8195 so we can also expect a decline till 8195 based on this condition.

Let’s analyze last decline from yesterday’s high 8561 on separate 5 minutes chart.

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for 09 July 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for 09 July 2015

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after yesterday’s high 8561 which I am expecting as completion of impulse and start of correction.

This sharp decline seems an impulsive move where inner waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are completed and 5 is in progress or it may be just wave 3 is progress.  In both cases, we can expect more fall till 8336-8284 which is 38%-61% of previous decline from 8561-8341.

Immediate Stoploss for shorts can be 8387 which is end of inner most wave 1 as shown on chart.

Conclusion:

Nifty charts are suggesting more weakness and levels of 8195 are expected in coming session, even a new low below 7940 is possible which can be confirmed later after seeing progressing waves. Tomorrow we can see 8336-8284 and immediate stoploss should be 8387 as I explained on 2nd chart.

Buying must be avoided and “Sell on Rise” must be the trading strategy till we identify any bullish pattern.

Updates for Safe Option Trading Strategy suggested in “Elliott Wave Analysis Report for 07 July 2015”

I mentioned in “Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 07 July 2015” that: –

I would like to avoid Buying in present conditions and may sell after seeing low risk opportunity and exact stoploss. I would like to buy both 8700 Calls and 8300 puts in equal quantity which is available at combined premium of 107-100 points with stoploss of 80.”

Combine premium of Nifty 8700 Cal and 8300 put was 100-104 yesterday (07 July) and today it went to 145-150. It was 40-50% point profits with lowest/minimum risk.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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