Nifty Outlook for March 2016 Expiry Week – Elliott Wave Analysis

| March 27, 2016

Nifty opened flat at 7717 and declined gradually to register day’s low 7670 at 11:30. But Nifty showed intraday strength at lower levels and bounced again to register day’s high 7726 before closing flat at 7716.

In my previous report I expected Nifty to rise minimum 7732 whereas 7757-7787 is also possible and stoploss for any longs was 7632. Nifty declined till 7670 and bounce back whereas 7732 is still pending. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts.

Today I am showing Nifty move from 29 Feb 2016 low 6825. Earlier counts you can read in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for Budget Day 29 Feb 2016 Onward.

Nifty Elliott Wave counts for March 2016 Expiry

Nifty Elliott Wave counts for March 2016 Expiry

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering move from 29 Feb 2016 low 6825.

As I explained yesterday, it seems wave (1) completed from 6825-7094 and wave (2) completed from 7094-6969 then wave (3) started from 6969. Wave (3) started slow but extended sharply later with just 23% correction in between.

The bounce from 6969 is straight with just a 23% correction in between and with unfilled gaps and most probable counts I have shown on charts. May be it is inner wave (v) of (3) is in progress from 7405.

If inner wave (iv) of (3) is completed at 7405 then wave (v) already achieved minimum 38% projection after breaking 7622 whereas 61%-70% projection is placed at 7757-7804 which may or may not be achieved.

Other Possibility: If it is wave (3) completed at 7539 instead of inner wave (iii) of (3). Then it is wave (5) started from 7405 instead of inner wave (v) or (3). There is lack of confidence in exact wave counts as move from 6969-7539 is absolutely straight without any reasonable corrections.

But in both the cases, bounce from 7405 to complete as impulse (either wave 5 or (v) of 3) and there must be a small or big correction after that. So we need to concentrate mainly on completion of impulse from 7405, further decline can be calculated later.

Let’s have a look at the move after 16 March 2016 low 7405 which I have shown as start of inner wave (v) of 3 on above 30 minutes chart.

Nifty Elliott Wave counts for March 2016 Expiry

Nifty Elliott Wave counts for March 2016 Expiry

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 16 March 2016 low 7405 which I have shown as start of inner wave (v) of 3.

It may be wave (1) of (V) completed from 7405-7585, (2) completed from 7585-7479 and wave (3) is in progress.

And within wave (3), may be inner wave (iii) completed at 7713 and inner wave (iv) or (v) is in progress as explained on chart. If wave (iv) of (3) completed at 7644 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 7733-7788. 38% retracement of whole wave (3) started from 7479 is placed at 7632.

There is one more possibility which I explained in my last analysis report. Please read Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 23 March 2016 – Importance of Fibonacci Calculations 


By analyzing all the conditions on charts, levels of 7757-7787 are possible in coming sessions and stoploss for any fresh/existing longs must be some points below 7632 which is 38% retracement of wave (3) shown on 2nd 15 minutes chart. But fresh longs to be taken only if we get decline and price near to stoploss.

So, short term trading strategy must be to buy on dips if get near 7632 using stoploss of 7621 until Nifty achieve 7733. Further outlook or levels can be calculated later after seeing progressing waves. Safe traders avoid holding any longs/buying position overnight.

For next March 2016 Expiry week, Nifty may be range bound with volatility in 7600-7800 range as there may be completion of wave (3) upside, (4) downside and then (5) upside in coming sessions. This outlook is valid until Nifty is trading above 7632.

But overall in medium term, the structure and patterns on chart is indicating a good reasonable decline in coming days. So, Nifty may give a good selling opportunity in coming days for 240-400 points but keep patience and wait for right levels and low risk opportunity.

Note: Market movement and levels can be changed based on wave’s extensions/retracements or if I am wrong in identifying current wave’s pattern. So act accordingly if you are trading based on this report as there may be no further updates on my blog, daily analysis report I sent only to my clients by email.

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Trading strategy suggested in this reports is just to show my subscriber how they can make trading strategies in different market conditions based on Elliott Wave Counts. These trading strategies are not trading recommendations. Any trade based on these trading strategies will be your own decisions and I will not be responsible for any loss or profit for the same.

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Category: Nifty

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Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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