Nifty Outlook Bases on EW Analysis for 21 May 2019

| May 21, 2019

Nifty opened more than 240 points up at 11651, decline to register low 11591 but bounced back again by 250 points to register day’s high 11845 and closed 421 points up at 11828.

Yesterday, Overall outlook of Nifty was not clear and we just had 11357-11315 as support and 11315 as downside trend reversal point. No trade was suggested during market hours and existing hedged trade was closed in loss after big gap up. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at  Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5. Wave 5 achieved minimum 11761 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.

So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.


Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart.  There is slight change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems, inner wave (1) of 5 completed from 10004-10985,  wave (2) may be completed from  10985-10585  Double Irregular Correction, wave (3) may be completed from 10585-11856, wave (4) may be completed from 11856-11108 as Simple Zigzag and wave (5) may be in progress.

Wave (3) is less than 161% and not extended, so wave (5) needs to be extended. So, minimum 61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 11252.

Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (5) on lowest possible time frame.


Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11108 which I marked as start of wave (5) on daily chart.

It seems wave inner wave (i) of (5) completed from 11108-11294, (ii) may be completed from 11294-11137 and wave (iii) may be in progress. Wave (iii) is sharp and fast without any reasonable correction, so it is difficult to counts its inner waves.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 11677-11574. So, 11677-11574 is immediate support and 11574 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks below 11574 can result in further decline towards 11108-11000 otherwise Nifty can bounce further towards 12252.

Conclusion

For Short/Medium Term: – Overall pattern is indicating minimum bounce towards 11252 whereas 11677-11574 is support. 11574 is immediate downside support and we can think of any downside reversal after break below 11574 only. But also need to look carefully at internal pattern because Nifty already changed pattern without achieving the targets.

There is no specific support/resistance or breakeven for intraday because of bigger and faster move. We just have 11677-11574 as overall support.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

Overall pattern is indicating further bounce towards 12252 in coming days with 11677-11574 as support but we need to trade based on internal patterns because Nifty already reversed and changed pattern without achieving the targets.

On the other hand, pattern can complete or change quickly because of Volatility and sharp move. So, I will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in pattern/important levels or any low risk trading opportunity during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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