Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for Nov 2017 Expiry

| November 16, 2017

Nifty opened higher at 10152 and registered low 10139 but traded with strength for rest of the day. Nifty bounced more than 100 points to register day’s high 10232 and finally closed 96 point up at 10214.

Friday, I mentioned that the possibility of bounce towards 10344-10490 is still there and this bounce can be from present levels or from 10094-10067 range. So, I suggested holding 10400 Nov Call bought in light quantity at 37-40 without stoploss till further updates. Nifty bounced more than 100 points and 10400 Call closed at 35. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further outlook.

Today I am covering bounce from 28 Sep 2017 low 9687 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 16 Oct 2017 Onward

Nifty Elliott wave analysis on hourly chart

Nifty Elliott wave analysis on hourly chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from low 9687 which I marked as start of new upside impulse.

Generally, it seems wave (1) completed from 9786-9945, (2) completed from 9945-9881, wave (3) may be in completed from 9881-10490, wave (4) may completed at 10094 and wave (5) may be in progress.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 10400-10590 but end of wave (3) is 10490. So, 10490-10590 is minimum targets range for wave (5).

But wave (4) retraced 100 points deeper than 38%, so there are cautions. So, first we wait for target of 10344 and further outlook will be calculated later.

Now, let’s have a deeper look at the pattern of wave (4) started from 10490-10094 on separate 15 minutes chart.

Nifty Elliott wave analysis on 15 minute chart

Nifty Elliott wave analysis on 15 minute chart

This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from all time high 10490 which I am expecting as start of wave (4) on hourly chart.

It seems wave (A) completed from 10490-10266, (B) completed from 10266-10344 and wave (C) completed from 10344-10094. Wave (C) achieved normal 100%-123% projection and pattern also seems completed.

38% retracement of wave (C) is placed at 10189 which is the breakeven point and is already breached. So, there is a possibility that wave (4) completed at 10094 and wave (5) for 10490-10590 started.

Now, let’s have a minor look at bounce from 10094 on 5 minute chart if we can get more clues.

Nifty Elliott wave analysis on 5 minute chart

Nifty Elliott wave analysis on 5 minute chart

This is 5 minute chart covering bounce from 10094 which I am expecting as start of wave (5).

Casually it seems wave (1) completed at 10211, and (2) may be already completed at 10183 and still in progress as Irregular Correction.  But I am not calculating any breakeven point or stoploss based on this chart because we can miss the bigger rally if small stoploss triggers.

Conclusion

There is no change in wave counts or outlook of Nifty for short term. Nifty still has possibility to bounce towards 10344-10490 but first we need to look for 10344 and next move can be calculated later. Upside breakeven point 10189 is also broken which is supporting further upside.

The overall conditions are indicating further bounce towards 10344 which further can extend towards 10490 and we will follow this outlook until we identify any clear bearish pattern.

Trading Point of View:

Nifty 10400 Nov call bought at 37-40 can still be hold without stoploss as long as possibility of bounce for 10344-10490 is there. This call can either be zero or more than double in this expiry.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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