Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 18 July 2017 Onward – Elliott Wave Analysis

| July 18, 2017

Nifty opened higher at 9908 and traded in narrow range of 34 points between 9494-9928 for whole day with positive bias. Finally Nifty closed 29 points up at 9915.

Friday, Nifty was expected to bounce towards 9914-9928 which further can extend towards 9965 and 9865 was reference for breakeven point. Trading strategy was to hold Nifty longs taken in 9862-9848 range on Friday with fresh stoploss of 9864 expecting minimum targets 9914-9929 which further can extend towards 9965. Nifty bounced to register 9928 today. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am analyzing bounce from 30 June 2017 low 9448 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Further Elliott Wave Analysis Updates of Nifty for 13 July 2017 Onward

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 30 Minute Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 30 Minute Chart

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 9448 which I am expecting as start of new Impulse. There is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave (1) completed from 9448-9650, (2) completed from 9650-9643 as big Irregular Correction and wave (3) may be in progress from 9643.

Now within wave (3), it seems inner wave (iii) completed at 9830, (iv) completed at 9778 and wave (v) may be in progress from 9778.

Wave (v) of (3) already achieved minimum 38%-61% projection placed at 9849-9893 and next 100% projection is placed at 9965 which may or may not be achieved.

Wave (v) of (3) already achieved its minimum projection and now we needs to check the progress of its pattern. So, we need to analyze the progress of wave (v) of (3) started from 9778 on separate chart to check its pattern and to calculate immediate stoploss and levels.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 15 Minute Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 15 Minute Chart

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 9778 which I marked as start of inner wave (v) of (3).

It seems inner wave ‘1’ of (v) completed from 9778-9822, wave ‘2’ completed at 9788, wave ‘3’ completed at 9913, wave ‘4’ completed at 9845 and wave ‘5’ of (V) may be in progress.

Wave ‘5’ already achieved normal 38%-61% projection whereas next 100% projection is placed at 9982 which may or may not be achieved.

And within wave ‘5’, it seems inner wave ‘iii’ completed at 9920 and wave ‘iv’ or ‘v’ may be in progress. 38% retracement of whole bounce till inner wave ‘iii’ of ‘5’ (from 9845-9920) is placed at 9891. So, 9891 can be referred as short term breakeven point of stoploss for longs.

Conclusion

Nifty achieved expected 9929 and short term wave [wave (3)] has already achieved their minimum projections but pattern still doesn’t seems completed and Nifty still have possibility for one more bounce for new high above 9928 which further can extend towards 9965.

And 9891 is the point below which we can think of any reversal after confirming with the pattern formed.

So, overall short term outlook is still bullish but with cautions at higher levels and we can think of any reversal only after a break below downward breakeven point 9891 after confirming with the pattern.

But there is possibility of small or big decline after achieving 9965-9982 (if Nifty manage to bounce till this range) because some sort of Impulse is about to complete with extended inner wave in this range.

Trading Point of View:

  1. Part/Full profit must be booked in Nifty longs (taken in 9862-9848 range on Friday) and rest position can be hold with fresh stoploss of 9887 (4 point below 9891) expecting minimum targets 9929-9965. Profit booking must be done on every rise because short term waves already achieved their minimum requirement.
  1. Though there are cautions for small or big decline soon but there is no sign of reversal yet on chart. Wait for break below breakeven point or formation of any reversal pattern to plan shorts/selling.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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