Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 16 May 2019

| May 16, 2019

Nifty opened higher at 11271, registered high 11286 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined back by about 150 points to register day’s low 11137 and closed 65 points down at 11157.

Friday, Nifty was in negative zone with 11269-11368 as major resistance and 11368 as major upside breakeven point. One more decline towards 11109 was expected if Nifty fails to break above 11294 within 2-3 hours after opening.

Trading strategy was “Selling on Rise” on every 23%-38% bounce or in resistance. Nifty failed to break above 11294 with 2-3 hours and the declined by 150 points but we didn’t suggest any trade. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at  Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5. Wave 5 achieved minimum 11761 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.

So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.


Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart.  Again, there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 11856.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 11370 and same is already broken. 11370 was short/medium term breakeven point and is the deciding point from where Nifty can bounce for new life high or can start further decline towards 10585-10004. Nifty traded below 11370 for 2-3 session and warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks, Nifty achieved 11125 till now.

The pattern formed may be Irregular Correction at top or wave 5 may be progressing as ED.

Now, let’s analyse the decline started from 11856 to check its pattern and internal wave counts.


Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on 30 Minutes Chart

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11856 which I marked as end of wave (C or 3) on daily chart.

It seems, wave (a or 1) may be completed from 11856-11588, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 11588-11789 as irregular correction and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11269-11368. So, 11269-11368 is short/medium term resistance and 11368 is major upside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay above 11368 for a day can result in upside reversal otherwise cautions for further decline towards 10585-10004 are there.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 11796-11625, (ii) may be completed from 11625-11789 as Double Zigzag Correction and wave (iii) may be completed at 11109  and wave (iv) or (v) may be in progress. It is difficult to identify the exact pattern of wave (iv).

But if wave (iv) is already completed at 11294 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 11031-11868. So, 11031-11868 will be the minimum target range in this case.

Now, let’s have a separate look at bounce after 11109 to check its pattern.


Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on 5 Minutes Chart

This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11108.

The bounce from 11108-11294 is impulsive and same can be marked as wave (A) or (1). It can also be (C) of Irregular Correction.

The later decline from 11294-11181 also looks like an impulse and can be wave (a or 1), the bounce from 11181-11286 can be marked as wave (b or 2) and (c or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 11286-11200,  (ii) may be completed from 11200-11278 and wave (iii) may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 11170-11190. So, 11170-11190 is immediate resistance. Nifty can either decline from 11170-11190 range towards 11108-11031 or can bounce towards 11278 again if break and stay above 11190 for 15 minutes.

Conclusion

For Short/Medium Term: – Same as I explained in my last analysis report. Major support 11370 is broken and internal pattern also indicating further fall. So, overall conditions are warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks. 11269-11368 is fresh major resistance and we can think of major reversal after break above 11368 only.

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 11170-11190 is immediate resistance. Nifty can either decline from 11170-11190 range towards 11108-11031 or can bounce towards 11278 again if break and stay above 11190 for 15 minutes.

Personality of waves is indicating one more bounce towards 11300 or minimum 200 points bounce from fresh low soon. But we can’t say if this bounce is going to be happen from present levels or after breaking below 11108 because wave (B) can be Irregular Correction also and we don’t have any reasonable support.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

For positional trades, our main preference will be selling on every 23%-38% rise until we see any confident bullish pattern. Probable downside targets range is 10585-10004 and 11269-11368 is overall resistance now, we will plan to sell in resistance range.

11170-11190 is very immediate/intraday resistance and we need to observe the behaviour of Nifty in 11170-11190 range to decide intraday/very short term trade. We will look for trading opportunities during live market hours.

I will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in pattern/important levels or any low risk trading opportunity during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast. Otherwise, traders can also plan their own trade based on the conditions and levels explained above.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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