Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for 09 May 2019

| May 9, 2019

Nifty opened lower at 11478, registered high 11479 but declined sharply after opening and traded with negative bias for rest of the day. Nifty declined by more than 140 points to register day’s low 11348 and closed 138 points down at 11359.

Yesterday, Nifty was in negative zone with 11555-11600 as immediate resistance and 11600 as immediate upside breakeven point and one more decline of 110-160 points was possible. Any upside reversal was possible after break above 11600.

Nifty opened lower and decline further by more than 140 points, short/medium term downside breakeven points is also broken. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on daily chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at  Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5. Wave 5 achieved minimum 11761 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.

So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.


Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on daily chart

This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart.

It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 11856 or still in progress

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 11370 and same is broken today. 11370 is short/medium term breakeven point and is the deciding point from where Nifty can bounce for new life high or can start further decline towards 10585-10004.

Now, let’s analyse the decline started from 11856 to check its pattern and internal wave counts.


Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on 30 Minutes chart

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11856 which I marked as end of wave (C or 3) on daily chart.

There is lots of confusion on this chart because of sharp move and repeated overlapping in between. I had to change the wave counts every next day on this chart. Pattern is again confusing but still I tried to mark most probable wave counts.

Now it seems, wave (a or 1) may be completed from 11856-11588, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 11588-11789 as irregular correction and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11453-11519. So, 11453-11519 is immediate resistance and 11519 is immediate upside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay above 11519 for 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 11656-11789, otherwise one more decline of minimum 170-250 points is possible.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 11796-11625, (ii) may be completed from 11625-11789 as Double Zigzag Correction and wave (iii) may be in progress.

Within wave (iii), it seems inner wave [1],[2],[3],[4] is completed and [5] may be in progress. Wave [5] projected more than 100%.

Within wave [5], it seems [i], [ii], [iii], [iv] is completed and [v] may be in progress. Wave [v] already achieved minimum 38% projection after break below 11349 and next 61%-100% projection is placed at 11286-11187 which may or may not be achieved.

100% projection for wave [v] is rare case, so 11187 is next reasonable support for Nifty.

Conclusion

For Short/Medium Term: – short/medium term breakeven point 11370 is broken today. 11370 is the deciding point from where Nifty can bounce for new life high or can start further decline towards 10585-10004. Most of the conditions are indicating further fall, we need to look at internal pattern for confirmation of further trend.

For Intraday/Very Short Term, So, 11453-11519 is immediate resistance and 11519 is immediate upside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay above 11519 for 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 11656-11789, otherwise one more decline of minimum 170-250 points is possible.

11187 is the next reasonable support after 11370. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

According to conditions on charts: –

Nifty if breaks and stay above 11519 for 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 11656-11789 but entry levels and stoploss for buying can be calculated during market hours only.

Nifty if forms upside corrective pattern in 11453-11519 range then selling can be done for 170-250 points decline but this trade needs confirmation during market hours to check upside corrective pattern.

11187 is next reasonable support which is far away, so we can think of any trade when i reached near 11187 only.

I just explained most probable low risk trading conditions, exact trade will be suggested during live market hours through WhatsApp if I see any low risk opportunity, otherwise general outlook and possibilities will be updated.

The biggest event (Election Results) is on the cards and Nifty can give sudden/unexpected moves till 23 May 2019, waves may project/retrace abnormally. So, we need to be careful in trading for next 2 weeks.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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