This Elliott Wave analysis report of Nifty for 02 Feb 2017 I am posting on my blog because this report has Elliott Wave counting on 1 minute chart which can be used as practical example by my students/book subscriber in future.
Nifty opened flat at 8570 and consolidated between 8540-8560 in first half but bounced sharply in second half by more than 160 points. Finally Nifty closed 155 points up at 8716 after registering day’s low 8537 and high 8722.
In yesterday’s report, bounce towards 8672-8765 was expected and suggested to hold Nifty longs taken at 8560-8549 with revised stoploss of 8519. Nifty achieved our expected targets range 8672-8765 without triggering the stoploss. Low for the day was 8537 and high was 8722. Let’s have a fresh look at latest chart for further scenario.
Today I am covering bounce from 26 Dec 2016 low 7893 and earlier wave counts are explained in my “All Time Frame” analysis report Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on All Time Frames – Long Term Outlook
This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 26 Dec 2016 low 7893. The whole bounce from low started slowly with overlapping of waves but gained speed as progressed higher.
Same as I explained yesterday, it seems wave (3) is completed at 8417, wave (4) may be completed at 8327 as “Irregular Complex correction” and wave (5) may be in progress from 8327. Wave (4) looks like an Irregular type of complex correction.
It is not possible to mark inner wave counts on this chart because of the lack of space and for the sake of clarity. Inner wave counts of the move are explained clearly in my earlier analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis and Outlook of Nifty for 25 Jan 2017 Expiry Day. Please read this report carefully if finding it difficult to understand the counts on this chart.
Wave (5) already achieved 61% projection after breaking above 8650 and is in extended zone. So, Nifty can give a sharp decline towards 8327 [start of extended wave (5)] after completion of wave (5) if the wave counts I have marked are correct. Next 100% projection for wave (5) is placed at 8851 which is rare case.
On the other hand, 23%-38%-61% retracement of whole impulse progress till now (from 7893-8722) is placed at 8526-8405-8209 which are the levels we can expect if correction has to happen.
Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (5) on 15 minutes chart to calculate its estimated completion range.
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 8327 which I am expecting as start of wave (5) on hourly chart.
It seems, inner wave (i) of (5) completed from 8327-8403, wave (ii) completed from 8403-8351 which retraced exactly 61%, wave (iii) completed from 8351-8672 which is highly extended, wave (iv) completed from 8672-8537 and wave (v) may be already completed at 8722 or very near to completion.
Wave (v) of (5) already achieved its minimum 38% projection after break above 8668 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 8750. Wave (v) of (5) will be in extended zone after break above 8750 which will again warn cautions.
Now, let’s have a separate look progress of wave (v) of (5) on separate 1 minute chart to see it position and expected range of completion.
This is 1 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 01 Feb 2017 low 8537 which I have marked as start of inner wave (v) of on 15 minute chart. I am counting inner wave of (v) on 1 minute chart because today’s bounce was sharp and inner wave are not identifiable on even 5 minutes chart.
Again, it seems inner wave 1, 2, 3, 4 are completed and lat wave 5 of (v) of bigger (5) may be in progress. Fibonacci projection wise, wave 5 already achieved 61% projection after break above 8688 and next 100% projection is placed at 8734 which is very near. Even innermost wave (v) of 5 is near to extended zone.
This chart shows that this impulse started from 8537 is either completed or is very near to completion with extended 5th wave. Even if I am wrong at counting waves and it is wave 3 completed at 8722 rather than 5, then also the upside seems limited and a small or big reversal we can expect very soon.
8652 is 38% retracement of whole move started from 8537 and same is the points below which we can be more confident about reversal.
Nifty bounced sharply from 8537 to break above 8672 as expected. And by looking carefully at all the analyzed chart in this report, it seems some sort of wave (5) is completing on all the charts and most of the wave 5s are extended. Overall it seems Nifty is at the end of inner wave (v) of 5 of (V) of (5) when we count waves from 7893 and wave (5) and (V) are already extended.
So overall, Nifty is warning cautions for a small or big decline from present and upside seems limited. Waves already achieved minimum projections and maximum upside is 8750-8851 in rare case (only if I am wrong at wave counting).
And there are possibilities for a minimum decline till 8537 which can further slip towards 8327-8209. And 8652 is the breakeven point below which we can be confident about reversal/correction.
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