Nifty EW Analysis and Outlook for 28 Mar 2019 Expiry

| March 26, 2019

Nifty opened gap up at 11375, declined to resister day’s low 11352 but bounced back by more than 140 points to register day’s high 10496 and closed 129 points up at 11483.

Yesterday, overall Nifty was bullish for short/medium term with 11258 as short term breakeven point. Whereas 11360-11390 was intraday resistance and 11390 was intraday upside breakeven point.

I didn’t suggest any particular but just explained intraday low risk buying/selling range with stoploss and targets. Low risk selling range was 11360-11390 and buying was suggested only if Nifty breaks and stay above 11390 for 15 minutes for targets 11500-11519. Nifty faced resistance in 11360-11390 in first half but bounced sharply by 100 points after break above 11390 in 2nd half. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at  Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5.

Now, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on daily chart

This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart. Again, there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Wave (C or 3) already achieved 100% projection after touching 11566 whereas next 123% projection is placed at 11797 which may or may not be achieved.

Wave (C or 3) is very sharp and straight with gaps in between. So, let’s analyse the progress of wave (C or 3) on separate lowest possible time frame.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on hourly chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11118 which I marked as start of wave (C or 3) on daily chart.

It seems, inner wave (i) completed from 10585-10939, wave (ii) may be completed from 10939-10751 and wave (iii) may be completed at 11572 and wave (iv) or (v) may be in progress. It is difficult to count inner waves of (iii) because of steep and sharp rise but still I tried to mark most probable counts.

38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 11258. So, 11258 is short term downside breakeven point and any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11258 only.

If wave (iv) already completed at 11311 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 11688-11920. So, 11688-11920 is the minimum target range on upside if wave (iv) already completed at 11311.

Now, let’s have a separate look at the bounce after 11311 on lowest possible time frame to check its pattern.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on 5 Minutes Chart

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11311 which I marked as start of wave (v) on hourly chart.

The bounce from 11311-11402 seems impulsive and same can be marked as wave [a or 1], wave [b or 2] may be completed from 11402-11352 and wave [c or 3] may be in progress. Wave [c or 3] is sharp, so it is difficult to counts its inner waves.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [c or 3] is placed at 11462-11440. So, 11462-11440 is immediate support and 11440 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay below 11440 can result in one more decline towards 11352-11311.

Conclusion

For Short/Medium Term: – Nifty is still in positive zone as longs as trading above short term breakeven point 11258 and there is possibility for further bounce towards 11688-11920 in coming days either from present levels or after registering one more low below 11311. Nifty bounce from support 11378-11258.

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 11462-11440 is immediate support and 11440 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay below 11440 for 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 11352-11311.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

Nifty bounced from support zone 11378-11258 and gave chance to buy when it broke and stay above 11390 for 15 minutes. Positional traders if bought after staying 15 minutes above 11390 can hold the same with trailing stoploss of 11429 (some points below 11440). Positional Upside target range is 11688-11920.

For Intraday, low risk buying range is 11462-11440 and any selling can be done after break and stay below 11440 for 15 minutes. Minimum Target for buying are 11519-11572 which further can extend towards 11688-11920 in coming days and target for selling is 11352-11311 if breaks and stay above 11440 for 15 minutes. Stoploss should not be more than 33 points in any case.

Buying can be done after confirming the pattern only. Nifty if forms a downside corrective pattern near 11462-11440 then buying can be done using stoploss of 11429, means this trade needs confirmation during market hours.

I am not suggesting any particular trade. Traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions and levels explained.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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