This analysis report is just a update of my yesterday’s report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 10 Nov 2015 Onwards as Nifty is almost near to our stoploss and market will be open for Muhurat Trading tomorrow between 5:45 PM to 6:45 PM.
Yesterday we expected a minimum decline till 7841-7806 and also suggested light longs from this range for bounce above 7937 using stoploss of 7770. Nifty declined as per expectations but retraced deeply almost touching the stoploss. Let’s see the scenario on chart.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after yesterday’s low 7771. Yesterday I expected an Irregular Correction at top and expected wave (c) of this irregular correction to go below 7841 but Nifty declined till 7772.
If I look at this whole bounce from 7771-7937 as “abc” correction then 2nd bounce from 7841-7937 looks like 3 wave’s move and is less than 100% of previous impulse (7771-7874). So, there is lack of confidence to consider it as simple ‘abc’.
But, if I consider “Irregular Correction” at top then wave (c) went very deep and is just 1 point away from its maximum limit. So, again there is lack of confidence. And the decline from 7937-7771 also not looks like (c) right now.
So, be with the possibility for upside as long as Nifty is above 7771 but even touch of 7770.9 will negate the pattern.
If Nifty break 7771 then there is other possibility that arises I have shown on 30 minutes chart:
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after high 8336. If Nifty break 7771 then there is possibility for the pattern I have shown on chart. Maybe, wave (1) completed from 8336-7997, wave (2) completed from 7997-8116, wave (3) completed from 8116-7771, wave (4) completed from 7771-7937 and wave (5) started from 7937.
But again there is lack of confidence as:
- Wave (2) is not even 38% and inner wave (c) is not even 100% of (a). These conditions are possible but rare.
- Wave (3) is just 100% of (1), just achieved its minimum projection. Wave (5) should be extended in this case which needs to project above 61%.
- Confusion within wave (4) I have explained in first chart.
So, all above mentioned conditions are following all EWT rules but with rare conditions. And we must be cautious whenever there are rare conditions.
But if this pattern is right then wave 5 needs to project minimum 61% which is placed at 7587 whereas next 100% projection is placed at 7372.
I have explained the possibilities above but with lack of confidence as pattern is going with rare combinations. Keep the possibility of upside as long as Nifty is trading above 7771 as we are not able to identify any convincing pattern.
But, if Nifty break below 7771 then there is also a possibility for Nifty to decline till 7587-7372 but any trade on downside must be taken only after seeing latest pattern on 5 minutes chart during live market hours using small stoploss as there is lack of confidence.
Overall I am not able to conclude anything with confidence from present scenario, so it is difficult to suggest any fresh trading strategy.
Hedge Trade Status:
If someone has traded in hedge trade I suggested on 09 Nov 2015 to Buy 8100 Call and Sell 8200 Call is equal quantity when Nifty trades below 7841 then the difference could be 6-7 points. One can exit trade this with loss of 3-4 points if Nifty breaks below 7771 otherwise hold.