Nifty Elliott Wave Probabilities and Outlook for 11 Sep 2015

| September 10, 2015

Nifty opened Gap down today at 7729 and declined more till 7681 from where started consolidating with positive bias, bounced gradually till afternoon followed by a sharp bounce to 7819 before closing 30 points down at 7788.

Yesterday I mentioned that “Nifty can show some decline till 7773-7728-7657 levels followed by bounce again. As, there is little confusion for exact pattern we need to concentrate on the decline till levels given above and then need to identify latest pattern for any further expectations”. Nifty opened at 7729 and bounced almost 140 points from 7728-7657 range after completing wave ‘c’.

Let’s have a look on latest charts now:

Nifty Elliott Wave Counts on hourly chart

Nifty Elliott Wave Counts on hourly chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering move after July 2015 high 8655. There is no change on this chart, It seems move from 8655-8321 can be waves (A or 1), from 8321-8621 can be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed today from 8621-7541. Please read the wave counts on chart carefully and also read Elliott Wave Analysis and Outlook of Nifty for All Time Frames as on 07 Sep 2015 for better understanding.

Now after completion of wave (C or 3) at 7541, we can expect a minimum bounce till 23%-38% retracement of wave (C or 3) completed from 8621-7541. Nifty already achieved 23% retracement after breaking 7795 whereas 38% is placed at 7953. Bounce can be till 23%-38% if it is wave (3) completed at 7541 and above 8655 if it is wave (c) completed at 7541 which can be identified later after seeing progress of bounce.

Now, let’s have a look at today’s bounce from low:

Nifty Elliott Wave Counts on 5 minutes chart

Nifty Elliott Wave Counts on 5 minutes chart

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after today’s low 7541 from where we are expecting a bounce of 23% -38% at least.

May be wave (3) completed yesterday at 7845 followed by wave (4) completed today at 7681 and wave (5) started. Wave (5) needs to break 7845 at least whereas 61% and 100% projection is placed at 7868 and 7985. Wave (5) will be in extended zone after 7868 from where we need to be cautious for sharp decline.

Other Possibility:

If this whole pattern is wave (A) completed at 7845, wave (B) completed at 7681 and wave (C) started then this (C) can project till 100%-123% which is placed at 7985-8056.

But in both the cases, minimum 7868 we can expect on upside before any further fall. Nifty can also bounce till 7985-8056 which we need to see on waves once 7868 is achieved.

The pattern I shown in Circle sometimes form in wave (5) or (C) which starts slowly with consolidation and bounce bit faster, the huge gap up next session followed by sharp decline. So, be cautious if Nifty opens huge Gap up above 7845 and fails to trade above opening price in first 20-30 minutes.

Conclusion:

Today’s conclusion is not crystal clear so I am explaining probabilities. By seeing the pattern on latest charts, at least 7868 on upside is expected where we need to see latest waves as possibilities for rise till 7985-8056 are also there.

The pattern I shown in Circle sometimes form within wave (5) or (C) which starts slowly with consolidation and bounce bit faster, then open huge gap up next session followed by sharp decline. So, be cautious if Nifty opens huge Gap up above 7845 and fails to trade above opening price in first 20-30 minutes.

Stoploss for existing longs must be 7788 where Nifty closed today and closing pattern is suggesting a Gap up opening above 7820. Counts will be negated if Nifty open of break below 7788 before 7845.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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