Nifty opened gap up today at 8014 but started declining without breaking above 8023. Nifty consolidated in 7980 -8010 range for couple of hours followed by a crash of more than 200 points before closing 165 points down at 7812. Nifty declined as we expected and also break below 7879 confirming 8055 as top. Read Nifty Can Decline Below 7541 in Coming Days – EW Analysis on 20 Sep 2015. So, let’s have a look at fresh charts.
Today, I am covering Nifty wave counts after July 2015 high 8665 as previous counts are same as I explained in my previous Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty. Please read: Elliott Wave Analysis and Outlook of Nifty for All Time Frames as on 07 Sep 2015.
This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering move after July 2015 high 8655 which I am expecting as a start of downward impulse. Here it seems,
- Wave (1) completed from 8655 -8321
- Wave (2) completed from 8321 – 8621
- Wave (3) completed from 8621 – 7541
- Wave (4) completed at 8055 as ‘abc’ which retraced more than 38%.
- Wave (5) needs to go below 7541 at least to avoid 5th failure whereas 61% projection is placed at 7366 which may or may not be achieved.
Now let’s have a look at decline from 8055 to analyze progress of wave (5) started from 8055.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 18 Sep 2015 high 8055. It seems inner wave (1) of bigger (5) is completed from 8055 -7910, (2) completed from 7910 -8021 as simple zigzag and (3) started from 8021.
Wave (3) is within last inner wave (v) after Irregular wave (iv). Normal 38% -61% projection for inner wave (v) is placed at 7753 -7706. Wave (v) can also project more than 61% as wave (iv) seems irregular. We can see 23% -38% bounce after completing wave (3) below 7753.
38% retracement for inner wave (iii) of (3) is at 7897 which should be the stoploss of existing/positional shorts taken at higher levels or at 7879.
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As I expected in my last report, Nifty can break below 7541 again to complete wave (5) and top is confirmed at 8055. But stoploss for existing/positional shorts for tomorrow must be at 7897 which is 38% retracement of wave (3) progressed till now.
Most probably, Nifty can open gap down below 7787 and can decline till 7753 -7706 without breaking above today’s close 7812. Nifty can give a bounce of 70 -130 points from low after completing wave (3) below 7753 and we need to identify the completion of impulse which started from 7830.
Strategy should be “Selling on Rise” until we see 7541 or any change in current wave’s pattern. Any change in wave’s pattern, trailing stoploss for sell and inner levels will be updated in daily Elliott Wave Analysis reports of Nifty.
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