Nifty opened flat today at 8009 and declined sharply just after opening till 7954 where it consolidated for some time followed by a sharp bounce of almost 90 points to register intraday high of 8043. But Nifty failed to sustain at higher levels and declined again to register new intraday low of 7949 before closing 30 points down at 7971. Overall it was a volatile session with both side swings.
I was expecting weakness in my yesterday’s report as most of the factors were favoring bounce from 7669-8091 as corrective rather than impulsive. I suggested break above 8043 as stoploss for selling which was just above 61% retracement of downward impulse. Nifty just touched 8043 and declined almost 100 points from there. On the other way, 7928 was stoploss for buying which was also safe today though we preferred selling on rise as safe strategy. Let’s have a look on latest charts now.
Today I am providing wave counts on after Friday’s high 8091 as there is no change in previous counts I explained in my yesterday analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis Charts of Nifty for 31 Aug 2015
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 25 Aug low of 7669 which I am expecting as completion of wave (3) and start of wave (4).
Again, there is no change in wave counts on this chart as an impulse wave (a) seems completed at 7929 followed by corrective (b) completed at 7777 as simple zigzag which retraced wave (a) by 61% and wave (c) may be completed from 7777-8091. Wave (c) achieved almost 123% projection after reaching near 8098. Nifty registered the high of 8091 on Friday followed by corrective decline till now.
As I also explained in yesterday’s report, by looking at personality of waves then, 2nd impulse (from 7777-8091) took more time to reach 100% projection of 1st impulse (from 7669-7929). 2nd impulse took more than triple time of 1st impulse till now but still trading below 100% projection after achieving 123%. So, inner waves of move from 7669-8091 carrying the personalities of “abc” rather than 123 as wave (3) is often faster than (1).
So, there are rare possibilities for this upside move to be impulsive rather it may be corrective wave “abc” as wave (4) and Nifty can decline below 7669 again to complete wave (5) in near future. Pattern may turn into any complex correction but possibilities for an impulsive upside move are rare. Now, let’s have a close look at decline after 8091 on separate 5 minutes chart.
This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from Friday’s high 8091. The whole pattern may be inner wave (1) completed from 8091-7962 followed by wave (2) from 7962-8043 as Irregular Correction which retraced exactly 61% followed by start of wave (3) from 8043. Wave (3) seems somewhere within inner wave (iv). 100% projection for wave (3) is placed at 7914 whereas 123% is placed at 7883.
Wave (3) seems smaller and slower here, so possibilities of “abc” rather than “123” can’t be ignored. It can also turn into an Ending Diagonal or any Complex Correction. So, at least 7914 we can expect but need to see latest wave pattern there.
Last decline from 8043-7949 looks like a 3 wave’s move, so Nifty needs to show one more down leg below 7949 to complete impulse. If Nifty manages to break above 8043 without breaking below 7949, it may form an “Irregular Correction”. Thus, levels below 7949 are again expected. Nifty should not break 7998 [wave (i)] to complete an impulse downwards as wave (iv) can not overlap (ii) in clean impulse.
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