Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis and Outlook for 28 Aug 2015

| August 27, 2015

Nifty opened huge gap up today at 7921 followed by sudden decline till 7863 but traded with strength after that to rise till day’s high of 7962. Nifty consolidated in tight range of 20 points between 7940-7960 in last 02 hours of trade. Finally Nifty closed 157 points up at 7948.

Nifty acted as per our first probability today where I expected the possibility of wave (a) completed at 7929 followed by wave (b) at 7777 as ‘abc’ which retraced almost 61% of (a), and wave(c) pending upwards minimum till 7937-8037 and Nifty given the signs at opening only.  Let’s have a look on latest charts.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 30 minutes chart

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 30 minutes chart

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after July 2015 high 8655. Again, there is no change in wave counts in this chart as the move from 8655-8321-8621 can be waves (A or 1) or (B or 2) and (C or 3) may be started from 8621.

Within wave (C or 3), wave (1), (2) and (3) are completed as shown on charts and whereas (4) may be in progress. Wave (4) already achieved 23% retracement till now whereas 38% is placed at 7996. So, there are possibilities for Nifty to take a dip below 7667 again to complete wave (5) in near future after completing wave (4) higher levels.

But the structure of waves within bounce after 7669 is suggesting possibilities of bit higher levels than 38%. Let’s have a separate look on bounce after this year low 7669 which I am expecting as start of wave (4) upwards.

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on 5 minutes chart

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on 5 minutes chart

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 25 Aug low of 7669 which I am expecting at completion of wave (3) and start of wave (4).

It seems that an impulse (a) may be completed at 7929 followed by corrective (b) completed at 7777 as simple zigzag which retraced wave (a) by 61% and wave (c) is in progress from 7777. Wave (c) achieved minimum 61% projection after breaking above 7937 whereas normal projection 100-123% is placed at 8037-8098 which is the range for cautions.

There are chances for minimum 80-100 points rise from present levels because formation of Leading Diagonal Pattern at top today. Let have a look on next chart.

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on 5 minutes chart

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on 5 minutes chart

This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering intraday move of 27 Aug 2015 which I am expecting as progress of inner wave (c) of (4).   It seems wave (c) is somewhere in wave inner 5 as shown on chart.

But there is Leading Diagonal type of pattern formed at top followed by Flat Correction. This Leading Diagonal started from 7923 is of almost 40 points which is always wave 1 of an impulse. Thus we can expect at least 110-140 points upside as waves 3, 4 and 5 from 7923 which comes around 8037.

Conclusion:

By seeing first 30 minutes chart, there are possibilities for a decline below 7669 in near future but if we see the structure and calculation of waves from 7669 then higher levels around 8037 are expected.

So, we can see the levels around 8037 on upside without breaking below 7937 where we need to see the latest wave’s pattern. If we identify the completion of impulse (started from 7923 with Leading Diagonal) above 8037 then we can sell with stoploss for minimum decline till 7937 again and further we need to see progressing waves. Try to trade for intraday only and avoid heavy overnight positions.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"