Nifty can show 8761-8806 without breaking below 8702 – EW Analysis dated 21 Jan 2015

| January 21, 2015

Nifty opened Gap up today and bounced to register the new all time high of 8740 followed by sharp decline of 50 points till 8690 and traded between 8700-8730 for rest of the day. Again there was no reversal seen in the trend. Let us take a look on charts.

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 22 Jan 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 22 Jan 2015

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 8066. By seeing the present structure it seems,

  • Wave (1) completed from 8065.89 to 8355.90 as Impulsive
  • Wave (2) completed from 8355.90 to 8236.75 as “abc” (Double Zigzag) corrective that corrected wave (1) by just 40%.
  • Wave (3) completed started from 8236.70 to 8526.84 which projected exactly 100% of wave 1. Thus wave (3) is not extended and next wave 5 can go extended to achieve minimum 61% projection.
  • Wave (4) completed from 8526.84 to 8452 which corrected wave (3) by 23%.
  • Wave (5) started from 8452 and achieved it minimum projection of 61% after hitting 8737. 70% projection for wave (5) is placed at 8775 and 100% placed at 8913.

We need to see wave 5 closely to count and calculate its internal waves:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 22 Jan 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 22 Jan 2015

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 8452 which I am expecting as start of wave 5. By seeing the chart it seems,

  • Wave 1 completed from 8452 to 8570
  • Wave 2 completed from 8570 to 8532 which corrected wave (1) by only 30%
  • Wave 3 completed from 8532 to 8740 which projected wave 1 by 178%, thus extended and we can expect normal wave 5
  • Wave 4 completed from 8740 to 8690 which corrected wave 3 by exactly 23%.
  • Wave 5 is now capable to project 38%-61% which is placed at 8761-8806.

Let us see today’s intraday move on 5 minutes chart:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 22 Jan 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 22 Jan 2015

This is again 5 minutes chart of Nifty showing intraday move of 21 Jan 2015. By seeing the chart it seems,

  • There is “abc” Correction from 8740 to 8690
  • It looks like a formation of Leading Diagonal Triangle from 8690 to 8728 which is always wave 1 followed by Irregular Correction from 8728 to 8703 as wave 2. This pattern is suggesting some more minimum upside of 80 to 120 points from 8690.

There was low risk opportunity to buy Nifty in 8705-8700 range with stoploss below 8690 after identification of Leading Diagonal Triangle of 38 points (from 8690 to 8728). As Leading Diagonal Triangle is always wave 1 and wave 2 can never go below wave 1 and we can expect wave 3 and 5 ahead.

Conclusion:

Charts are suggesting some more upside till 8761 to 8806 and Nifty should not break below 8702 to keep the small pattern running. So immediate stoploss for any longs must be 8702 and follow next waves for further possibilities. Trade must be light and with strict stoploss and keep booking reasonable profits as there may be big moves both sides.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (6)

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  1. RAJEEV MITTAL says:

    DEEPAK JI CAN YOU SHOW ME CHANNELING IN NIFTY MOVE FROM 7725 TO 8630 SO THAT I MAY UNDERSTAND FIVE WAVE COUNT IN THIS MOVE OF NIFTY

  2. RAJEEV says:

    DEEPAK JI HOW CAN WAVE 3 IS SHORTER THAN BOTH 1 AND 5