Nifty can show 8750-8572 without breaking above 8973 – EW analysis on 29 Jan 2015

| January 29, 2015

Today was a volatile day   where Nifty gave 100 points swing on both side. Nifty opened flat and bounced from 8890 to 8985 till midsession but crashed more than 100 points within 90 minutes to register the day’s low of 8876 after that. Finally, Nifty closed flat at 8914. Let us see what charts are suggesting.

Nifty EW analysis on 29 Jan 2015

Nifty EW analysis on 29 Jan 2015

This is daily minute’s time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 7118 which I am expecting as the start of Ending Diagonal. This formation of Ending Diagonal Triangle is still valid as Nifty didn’t break the wedge on any side and it seems this Ending Diagonal is on the verge of completion. Nifty can give good correction if I am identifying this ED correctly.  Let us see the move from 7724 closely which is the start of wave (5) of ED.

Nifty EW Analysis on 29 Jan 2015

Nifty EW Analysis on 29 Jan 2015

This is again daily chart of Nifty covering move after 7724 which I am expecting as the start of wave (5) of ED that must be a 3 waves “abc” move. It seems “abc” move of this wave is completed with:

  1. Wave (a) from 7724 to 8626 as impulse
  2. Wave (b) from 8626 to 8066 as truncated (failure). Internal wave “c” of (b) failed to break the end of (a).
  3. Wave (c) from 8066 to 8985 which projected above 100% of wave (a)

This is the most probable possibility seeing the whole structure of Ending Diagonal Triangle and this chart from 7724 to 8985. Let have a look of wave (c ) of (5) closely on 15 minutes chart.

Nifty EW Analysis on 29 Jan 2015

Nifty EW Analysis on 29 Jan 2015

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 8066 which  am expecting as the start of wave (c ) of (5) of ED.

  • Wave (1) completed from 8065.89 to 8355.90 as Impulsive
  • Wave (2) completed from 8355.90 to 8236.75 as “abc” (Double Zigzag) corrective that corrected wave (1) by just 40%.
  • Wave (3) completed started from 8236.70 to 8526.84 which projected exactly 100% of wave 1. Thus wave (3) is not extended and next wave 5 can go extended to achieve minimum 61% projection.
  • Wave (4) completed from 8526.84 to 8452 which corrected wave (3) by 23%.
  • Wave (5) started from 8452 and projected above 100% after breaking 8913 (highly Extended). The sharp decline of 100 points from top is showing the possibilities of completion of this wave at top. Let’s have a look on today’s sharp fall from 8985 to 8876. Nifty can fall to internal wave (i) of 5 (8572) if it is really completed at 8985 as shown on chart.

Let’s have a look on today’s sharp decline from 8985 to 8875.

Nifty EW Analysis on 29 Jan 2015

Nifty EW Analysis on 29 Jan 2015

This is 5 minutes chart of Nifty showing today’s intraday move. The sharp fall from 8985 is indicating this move as downward impulse though I am not able to identify the inner waves clearly. But gradual decline after sharp fall with overlapping of waves after 8936 doesn’t carry the personality of wave “c”. It may be wave (v) of impulse or a type complex correction.

If I am right at identifying then Nifty can start decline from 38% to 61% retracement of previous move which is placed at 8920 to 8943 and decline may be till 8572 to 8452 as described on previous chart.

Conclusion:

The sharp decline of 100 points from top is signaling the sign on some reversal. Trades on short side may be initiated after identification of wave on smaller time frame (5 minutes chart). Trade light and trade with strict stoploss as 100 points fall after a 900 points rise is not a big deal near expiry and breaking above high again may start new wave upside for higher levels.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (3)

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  1. sanjay wadhvana says:

    i like your analysis..would like1 week more abt it .
    Need your analysis report prior to next days trading session so that i can practically trade as per your analysis.

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Sanjay,

      I provide every report a day advance only. And these reports are not for practical trading, practical trade can only be done during live trading hour after seeing live wave’s pattern. These analysis reports are just home work for next day.

      And these Elliott wave analysis reports are for training purpose for my students so that can see practical application of Elliott wave theory whatever they learned in book so that they can learn practically and faster.

      I prepare and send report to my students daily at 10PM for nxt day but post on my website occasionally.

  2. Pradeep says:

    Great and Excellent prediction , Today also carry the poisoning you have observed on yesterdays analysis.
    Just a request , after your subscription of you EW book , Can i make a excellent analysis for Earn 25% to 50% Profit per month?
    I also expected Good fall as per the MACD theory , I brought 8800 PE @ 180 and now trading @ 110