Nifty Can Show 8646-8601 Without Breaking Above 8725 – Elliott Wave Analysis for 17 April 2015

| April 16, 2015

Nifty opened mild Gap up today and traded with negative bias for rest of the day. Nifty declined more than 100 points gradually from 8760 till mid session without breaking above 8767 which I expected in my yesterday’s Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty.  Nifty bounced again from low till 8724 and finally closed 43 points negative at 8706 after giving high of 8760 and low of 8646. Let’s proceed to analyze latest charts.

I am showing wave counts after latest low 8269 only as there is no change in previous counts explained in Monday’s report Latest Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty for All Time Frames on 05 April 2015.

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 17 April 2015

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 17 April 2015

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after last low 8269 which I am expecting as a start of an impulse.

It seems, an impulse is completed at high 8845 as shown on chart followed by a start of correction from top. Wave counts within this impulse are marked on chart. 38% retracement of this impulse is placed at 8624 which may be achieved in next session whereas 61% are placed at 8488.

Correction after an impulse can go anywhere from 23% to 100%, so it can be identified only after seeing progressing waves.

Let’s see the decline after today’s high on separate 5 minutes chart:

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 17 April 2015

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 17 April 2015

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 8844 which I am expecting as start of correction after an impulse.

It seems wave 1, 2, 3 and 4 completed and wave 5 is in progress. Wave 3 is highly extended which projected more than 361% of wave 1 and wave 4 retraced just above 38% of 3. Inner wave (c) also projected exactly 123% of (a). The downward impulse can be inner wave (a) of “abc” correction.

If these counts are correct then wave 5 can project 38% to 61% which is placed at 8647 and 8601 respectively without breaking above 8725.   So, stoploss for existing/fresh shorts should be 8725 as wave 4 rarely retraces more than 38% and we can also identify an “abc” correction completed from 8646 to 8724.x

Conclusion:

Current set up on chart is suggesting new low again, maybe 8646 -8601 but stop loss for existing/fresh shorts should be 8725 to protect ourselves as we are already seeing wave (4) completed at 8724.

Yesterday I concluded “Current set up on chart is suggesting new low again, may be 8708 and below but stop loss for existing shorts can be some points above 8767 as we are assuming that sharp fall as wave 3 and extended wave 3 rarely retrace more that  38%”. And Nifty declined from 8760 the same way.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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