Nifty Can Show 8646-8601 Without Breaking Above 8725 – Elliott Wave Analysis for 17 April 2015

| April 16, 2015

Nifty opened mild Gap up today and traded with negative bias for rest of the day. Nifty declined more than 100 points gradually from 8760 till mid session without breaking above 8767 which I expected in my yesterday’s Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty.  Nifty bounced again from low till 8724 and finally closed 43 points negative at 8706 after giving high of 8760 and low of 8646. Let’s proceed to analyze latest charts.

I am showing wave counts after latest low 8269 only as there is no change in previous counts explained in Monday’s report Latest Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty for All Time Frames on 05 April 2015.

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 17 April 2015

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 17 April 2015

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after last low 8269 which I am expecting as a start of an impulse.

It seems, an impulse is completed at high 8845 as shown on chart followed by a start of correction from top. Wave counts within this impulse are marked on chart. 38% retracement of this impulse is placed at 8624 which may be achieved in next session whereas 61% are placed at 8488.

Correction after an impulse can go anywhere from 23% to 100%, so it can be identified only after seeing progressing waves.

Let’s see the decline after today’s high on separate 5 minutes chart:

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 17 April 2015

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 17 April 2015

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 8844 which I am expecting as start of correction after an impulse.

It seems wave 1, 2, 3 and 4 completed and wave 5 is in progress. Wave 3 is highly extended which projected more than 361% of wave 1 and wave 4 retraced just above 38% of 3. Inner wave (c) also projected exactly 123% of (a). The downward impulse can be inner wave (a) of “abc” correction.

If these counts are correct then wave 5 can project 38% to 61% which is placed at 8647 and 8601 respectively without breaking above 8725.   So, stoploss for existing/fresh shorts should be 8725 as wave 4 rarely retraces more than 38% and we can also identify an “abc” correction completed from 8646 to 8724.x

Conclusion:

Current set up on chart is suggesting new low again, maybe 8646 -8601 but stop loss for existing/fresh shorts should be 8725 to protect ourselves as we are already seeing wave (4) completed at 8724.

Yesterday I concluded “Current set up on chart is suggesting new low again, may be 8708 and below but stop loss for existing shorts can be some points above 8767 as we are assuming that sharp fall as wave 3 and extended wave 3 rarely retrace more that  38%”. And Nifty declined from 8760 the same way.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (14)

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  1. Dhiraj Dawra says:

    A retracement to levels of 8570-8630 will commence from tomorrow

  2. Rahul Malik says:

    Dear Sir, what do you see the Nifty direction from here ?

  3. Dilip Vora says:

    Deepakji,
    As you have mentioned in your section that Wave 4 tends to do a correction a little bit more than 38%,but dont you think that by the time the price reaches to the Start of Wave 4…and when the correction starts to give rise to wave 4,Many of those traders who havent rode the Wave 3 will chip in at every point of correction to make sure that do nopt miss this too and in that process (At least what I have seen in the history so far…may future would be different)Seeing a correction more than 23% is a bit more than what it should be in wave 4?
    Plz clear the doubts.
    Thanks and Regards,
    Dilip Vora

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Dilip Vora,

      I didn’t said “Wave 4 tends to do a correction a little bit more than 38%”. I said “wave 4 rarely retraces more than 38%”. That’s why I suggest stop loss above 38% retracement of 4. Please read carefully.

      Generally, Wave 4 retrace 23% to 38% of extended wave 3. Sometimes it may be less than 23% and sometime more than 38%. It depends upon previous wave’s personality. And It is not just about Fibonacci Replacements, Wave’s pattern should also suggest completion of corrective wave as I explained above.

  4. Rajan says:

    deepak ji, bank nifty kuch gdbd krega ?

  5. Dr. Nilesh Thete says:

    Primary cycle 2 wave was simple correction.. I am expecting cycle 4 wave to be more complex… Possibility of an expanding traingle also to kept in mind as an alternate..If it is an expanding triangle then we have completed wave a down, wave b up, wave c down,,,wave d could be in progress which could complete near 9125-9150 levels and then comes e wave down to 7950 levels..which could complete cycle 4…Then we go ahead with cycle wave 5 up…

    • Rajan says:

      April 5, 2015 at 11:06 am
      i see spot range 7635 (8135-8396) above (8626-8779-9161) ……..

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Nilesh,

      The maximum complexity of an correction is Triple Zigzag, not more
      that Triple. Correction can either be Simple Zigzag, Double Zigzag or
      Triple Zigzag.

      Triple Zigzag means combination of 3 Simple Zigzag, connected by link
      wave. and the structure is abc-x-abc-x-abc and it is always a Triangle
      that can be Contracting, Expanding or Parallel..

      I never use and never know about abcde.. I think it is triple Zigzag
      only with five waves.. abc-x-abc-x-abc . You are just saying it abcde
      but I expanded the internal structure of every wave a,b,c,d,e

      And may be, I know something different you read in your book. So no comment.

      I am expecting Triple Zigzag here but not betting that it will
      happen.. I will ride internal waves till its completion or forming of
      any other pattern. And let it be any correction, it is not tough for
      me to trade smaller waves. I like to catch even 100-150 points wave.

  6. Dharmendra says:

    Great Analysis…..
    Thanks for Perfect Guidance

  7. Prakash says:

    Dear Deepak,

    Appreciate the accuracy of your analysis.
    can you suggest is this correction over now ,as nifty ended @8606. or still more downside!

    Regards,
    Prakash

  8. senthil says:

    No words simply great sir…..targets on dots……

  9. rashmi says:

    sir,8600 achieved,now what

  10. Dhiraj Dawra says:

    Hello Deepak,

    After completing of X wave at 8844, if this is 5 wave down (A), can we expect a 3 wave rise as B wave and then finally decline of 5 wave (C) to complete at 8100-8200.

    This will complete double zig zag in form of the larger impulse Wave 4, Please advise

    • Amit Jain says:

      A was roughly 250 pts. If we see B up from here and than C down which can be 61.8-138%. How can it go till 8100.

      It can max go to 8300-8350. So this would mostly be a wave 1 and wave 2 of a fresh wave.