Nifty can decline till 8500-8460 again in Short Term

| April 7, 2015

This is same Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 08 April 2015 I sent to my Students and Subscribers today.

Nifty opened Gap up today as expected but declined sharply after opening and traded with negative bias till 2:00 PM to decline 100 points from high followed by a sharp rise of 90 points again before closing. Overall it was a volatile session as expected in yesterday’s Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty. Finally, Nifty closed flat at 8660 after giving low of 8587 and high of 8692. Let’s have a look on latest chart.

I am showing wave counts after latest low 8269 only as there is no change in previous counts explained in Monday’s report Latest Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty for All Time Frames on 05 April 2015.

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis Chart for 08 April 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis Chart for 08 April 2015

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after last low 8269. It seems an impulse is going on where inner wave (1), (2), (3) and (4) are completed and (5) is in progress as shown on chart. Wave (5) already achieved normal projection of 61% and 100% is placed at 8716. The closing pattern on chart is suggesting Gap Up tomorrow. It seems, wave (5) is within inner wave (v).

Wave 5 already entered in extended zone after breaking 61% projection (8616). So, we need to be cautious as we often see a sharp reversal after extended wave 5. Let’s have a looks at wave (5) on separate 5 minutes chart.

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis Chart for 08 April 2015

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis Chart for 08 April 2015

This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 8455 which I am expecting as start of wave (5).

It seems, inner wave (v) of (5) is in progress from 8587. Wave (v) need to break 8692 minimum (top of wave (iii)) to avoid 5th failure where as 61% projection is placed at 8733 which is comfortable. Wave (v) will enter in extended zone after 8733 where we need to be cautious for sharp decline.

Conclusion:

Setup on chart is suggesting some more upside minimum above 8692 but needs cautions at  higher levels as wave 5 is already extended (if I am right a identifying). There is no safe trading opportunity on current charts and any trading position can be taken only during live market hours after seeing live waves with small stoploss.

Nifty can decline back to 8500-8460 again if am right at identifying counts but top is not confirmed yet, an impulse must complete in 8692 -8753 range started from 8587. It is difficult to suggest any stoploss at present as margin for completion of wave (v) is big. Never take any trading positions in hurry and trade light with strict stoploss. Current Structure on charts is suggesting huge volatility in coming sessions.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (7)

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  1. rashmi says:

    Dear sir,plz post your latest nifty analysis.
    Thnx

  2. Dhiraj Dawra says:

    Looking at the bearish engulfing candle on the monthly chart, nifty will decline from maximum 8840 levels back to its 200 dma in the month of april.

    Accumulating shorts from tomorrow will be fruitful as next week marks the beginning of a new time cycle which will be negative.

  3. Salim Kabani says:

    Good analysis

    very useful for understanding of wave

  4. trader says:

    Looks like all theories suggesting April Peak is around 8800+/-20. This may happen on 13/4/15. If index touching 8800 and retraced means heading to 8500 but one can buy puts only on confirmation.

  5. as.kumar says:

    Hi jagadeesh, can i see your countings? If you have it on web,please give the link.

    Thanking you.

  6. jagadeesh says:

    Hii Deepak,

    I have a different count of nifty in my elliot charts. The wave 3 was extended and wave 5 already completed at 9119. The down move from 9119 to 8269 was wave 2A and corrective with triple zigzag. Wave 2B now in progress and by seeing by todays sharp upmove feeling of last leg of upmove is possible. Be cautious from thes elevels with max upside of close to 8810. BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS. Big fall downmove will be seen from those levels.