Nifty Can Bounce Towards 11907 Soon

| April 3, 2019

Nifty opened higher at 11711 and declined sharply after opening to register day’s low 11655 but bounced back again by more than 70 points to register day’s high 11729 and closed 44 points up at 11713.

Friday, overall Nifty was bullish for short/medium term with possibility of one more bounce of minimum 263 points from 11661-11613 range without breaking much lower below 11613.

Trading strategy was to buy Nifty systematically on decline till 11613 with stoploss of 11579 (33 points below 11613) expecting one more bounce of minimum 263 points. Nifty entered in support range 11661-11613 and bounced back till 11729. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott wave counts on Nifty on daily chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at  Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5.

Now, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.


Elliott wave counts on Nifty on daily chart

This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart. Again, there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Wave (C or 3) already achieved 100% projection after touching 11566 whereas next 123% projection is placed at 11797 which may or may not be achieved. Nifty achieved 11738 till now.

Wave (C or 3) is very sharp and straight with gaps in between. So, let’s analyse the progress of wave (C or 3) on separate lowest possible time frame.


Elliott wave counts on Nifty on hourly chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11118 which I marked as start of wave (C or 3) on daily chart.

It seems, inner wave (i) completed from 10585-10939, wave (ii) may be completed from 10939-10751 and wave (iii) may be completed at 11572, wave (iv) may be completed at 11311 and (v) may be in progress. It is difficult to count inner waves of (iii) because of steep and sharp rise but still I tried to mark most probable counts.

Wave (v) achieved minimum 38% projection after breaking above 11688 and next 61% projection is placed at 11920 which may or may not be achieved. Nifty achieved 11738 till now.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 11505-11360. So, 11505-11360 is short/medium term support and 11360 is short term downside breakeven point and any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11360 only.

Now, let’s have a separate look at the bounce after 11311 on lowest possible time frame to check its pattern.


Elliott wave counts on Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11311 which I marked as start of wave (v) on hourly chart. There is slight change in wave counts because projections on previous wave counts extended abnormally.

Now, it seems inner wave [1] of (v) completed from 11311-11546, [2] may be completed from 11546-11413, [3] may be completed from at 11738 and wave [4] of [5] may be in progress.

Wave [3] is less than 161% and is not extended, so if wave [3] is already completed then wave [5] needs to be extended. Minimum 61%-100% projection for wave [5] is placed at 11907-12071, so 11907-12017 is the minimum target range for wave [5] if wave [4] is already completed at 11644.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [3] is placed at 11661-11613. So, 11661-11613 is immediate support and 11613 is immediate downside breakeven point and Nifty has possibility to give one more bounce of 263 points (till 11907) without breaking much lower below 11613. Any immediate downside reversal can be expected after break below 11613 only.

Conclusion

For Short/Medium Term: – Nifty achieved minimum short term target 11688 but pattern is not yet completed. So, there is possibility of further bounce towards 11920. 11505-11360 is short/medium term support. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11360 only.

For Intraday/Very Short Term, Nifty is in positive zone with 11661-11613 as immediate support and Nifty has possibility to bounce further by 263 point without breaking much lower below 11613. Minimum upside target range is 11907-12071 if Nifty bounces straightway from present levels without breaking below 11644. Any immediate downside reversal can be expected after break below 11613 only.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

Nifty achieved minimum short/medium term target 11688, so we need to trade based on internal short term pattern and levels now on. 11505-11360 is fresh short/medium term support.

For Intraday/very short term, there is possibility for one more bounce of minimum 263 points or till 11907-12071 from 11661-11613 range without breaking much lower below 11613. Those who bought yesterday in 11661-11613 range can hold using same stoploss of 11579, otherwise fresh longs can also be taken if gets decline towards 11661-11613 with same stoploss of 11579 expecting same targets 11907-12071.

Maximum stoploss for buying is 11545 (end of wave [1]), so those who want to trade with this big stoploss can buy suitable Nifty calls expecting 263 points bounce in coming days. 

These are low risk trading strategies I can suggest in such conditions, otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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