Nifty Can Bounce towards 11698-11919 in Short Term

| August 22, 2018

Nifty opened higher at 11572, registered high 11581 but declined back to register day’s low 11539 and closed 19 points up at 11570. Overall, Nifty traded in narrow range of 40 points between 11539-11581.

Yesterday, Nifty was in very bullish zone with possibility of minimum bounce towards 11698-11919. 11518-11489 was immediate support and 11489 was immediate breakeven. Any big or small reversal was expected after break below 11489 only.

Trading strategy was to buy 11600 Call Nifty of Aug Expiry in 11565-11489 range and hold till next update, and this trade was suggested to exit if Nifty trades below 11489 for 15 minutes. Nifty Future was suggested to buy only if get Nifty in 11500-11489 range using stoploss of 11469. Nifty traded in 11539-11581 range for whole day. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 9951 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on daily chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 9951 which I marked as start of wave ‘v’ on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. There is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems, wave (1) completed from 9951-10929, (2) may be completed from 10929-10417 and wave (3) may be in progress from 10417.

And within wave (3), it seems inner wave (i) of (3) completed from 10417-10893 (pattern not clear), (ii) completed at 10557 as Double Zigzag correction and wave (iii) may be in progress.

And within wave (iii), it seems inner wave [i], [ii], [iii], [iv] may be completed and [v] may be in progress from 11340. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 11698-11919 and same is the minimum expected range for completion of wave [v].

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 11339-11189. So, 11339-11189 is fresh short term support and 11189 is short term breakeven point. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11189 only.

Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave [5] started from 11340 to calculate further move.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 15 minutes chart

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 15 minutes chart

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11340 which I am expecting as start of wave [v] on daily chart.

It seems wave (1), completed from 11340-11406, wave (2) completed from 11406-11350 and wave (3) may be in progress.

Within wave (3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 11350-11452, (ii) completed from 11452-11367, wave (iii) may be completed at 11581 and wave (iv) or (v) in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 11530-11499. So, 11530-11499 is immediate support and 11499 is immediate breakeven. 11499 can also be used as stoploss for longs.

Conclusion

For Short Term,

Same as I explained in my last analysis report, Nifty is looking very bullish for short to medium term because it is in wave (iii) or (3) in progress in both Daily and 15 minutes charts. 11698-11919 can be expected as minimum targets range on upside as long as Nifty is trading above immediate breakeven point.

11339-11189 is still short term support and 11189 is breakeven point on downside and bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11189 only.

11530-11499 is immediate support and 11499 is immediate breakeven point. So, we can expect any small or big decline after break below 11499 only.

We needs to keep all these conditions in mind while planning next trade.

Trading Points of View:

According to fresh conditions on charts: –

Nifty is in very bullish zone and there is possibility of further bounce towards 11698-11919 range. So, our short term strategy must be “Buying on Dips” using stoploss below 11499. But Nifty can bounce without giving 23%-38% retracements also, so we can trade in options also to catch this move because stoploss will be big.

So, Nifty 11600 Call of Aug Expiry bought today in 11565-11489 range can be to hold for minimum targets 11698 which further can extend towards 11919. Exit from this call if Nifty trades below 11499 continuously for 15 minutes. Reminding again, trade must be in light quantity because stoploss is big and expiry is very near.

Fresh trade in Nifty Futures can be done if get Nifty in 11515-11499 range using exact stoploss of 11487 expecting same target 11698.

But Nifty if manages to trade below 11499 continuously for 15 minutes then 11500 Put of Aug can be bought using stoploss of 11551.

These are low risk trading strategies I can suggest in these conditions, otherwise traders can plan their own trades based on the conditions explained above.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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