Nifty can Bounce Towards 10198-10355 in Coming Days – Elliott Wave Analysis

| August 3, 2017

Nifty opened higher at 10136 today but declined just after opening and traded with negative bias for rest of the day. Nifty declined to register day’s low 10054 before closing 33 points down at 10081.

Yesterday, Bounce above 10128 towards 10198-10355 was expected in coming days either from 10108-10093 range or from 10065-10003 [in case wave (ii) turns into Irregular Correction]. Suggested to buy Nifty in 10108-10093 range with stoploss of 10092 OR wait for decline till 10065-10003 range to initiate longs if Nifty breaks below 10093. Nifty breaks below 10093 (stoploss triggered) and entered in 10065-10003 range. Now, let’s have fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am analyzing bounce from 30 June 2017 low 9448 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Further Elliott Wave Analysis Updates of Nifty for 13 July 2017 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 03 Aug 2017

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 03 Aug 2017

This is 01 hour time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 9448 which I am expecting as start of new Impulse.

It seems wave (1) completed at 9650, (2) completed at 9595, (3) completed at 10114, (4) may be completed at 9944 and wave (5) may be in progress from 9944.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 10198-10355 which is minimum expected target range if the pattern I marked is correct.

Now, let’s separate look at the progress of wave (5) started from 9944 on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and calculate immediate moves.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 03 Aug 2-17

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 03 Aug 2-17

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 03 Aug 2017

Elliott wave counts of Nifty for 03 Aug 2017

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from low 9944 which I am expecting as start of wave (5) on previous chart.

Wave (ii) of (5) turned into Irregular Correction as I expected in my last analysis of report and now it seems wave (i) of (5) may be completed from 9944-10101 and (ii) may be already completed from 10101-10054 or still in progress as Irregular Correction.

Normal 38%-61% retracement for wave (ii) is placed at 10041-10003 which is general range we can expect for end of wave (ii) but maximum limit for wave (ii) is 9944 [start of wave (i)]. So, best stoploss for any longs is below 9944 only.

Conclusion

Nifty registered new all time high 10137  and decline back by 80 point but it still have possibility to rise further towards 10198-10355 to achieve minimum 38%-61% projection of wave (5) if the pattern and wave counts I marked on chart is correct.

10041-10003 [38%-61% retracement for wave (ii)] is the normal range from where Nifty can bounce again for new high above 10137 towards 10198-10355 but best stoploss for longs is 9944 [start of wave (i)] only because pattern of wave (c) of Irregular Correction is not clear.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while preparing next trading plan.

Trading Point of View:

Conditions on charts are  favouring further bounce above 10137 towards 10198-10355 but normal entry levels for longs is 10041-10003 and stoploss is 9944. Stoploss is big in this case, so we need to plan trade accordingly.

So, best trading strategy would be to buy Nifty Aug 9900 Call in 10041-10003 range and hold with exact stoploss of 9943 expecting targets 10198-10355. I suggested trade in options because Stoploss is big. Further stoploss or if there is any change in wave counts or trading plan will be updated in next analysis report.

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About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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