Nifty can Bounce Further Towards 9992-10102 in Short Term – Elliott Wave Analysis

| July 19, 2017

Nifty opened gap up at 9855 and traded with strength for rest of the day. Nifty bounced further after opening to register day’s high 9905 before closing 72 points up at 9899.

Yesterday, one more bounce for new high above 9928 was expected in coming days because of Irregular Correction at top whereas 9790 was breakeven point on downside and 9841 was breakeven point on upside.

I suggested to buy Nifty either in 9790-9764 range (in Nifty decline) with stoploss of 9759 OR Buy Nifty if even touch 9843 (if Nifty bounce) with stoploss of 9814 expecting minimum targets 9884-9929 which further can extend higher above 9929. Nifty bounced above 9641 and 2nd condition for buying above 9643 was triggered, Nifty bounced to register high 9905 without hitting stoploss and closed at 9899. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am analyzing bounce from 30 June 2017 low 9448 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Further Elliott Wave Analysis Updates of Nifty for 13 July 2017 Onward

Elliott wave analysis of nifty for 20 July 2017

Elliott wave analysis of nifty for 20 July 2017

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 9448 which I am expecting as start of new Impulse. Nifty declined from 9928 without completing the pattern and there is possibility of Irregular Correction at top, so there is slight change in wave counts (from report for 19 July).

So may be, wave (1) completed from 9448-9650, (2) completed from 9650-9959 and wave (3) may be in completed at 9913, wave (4) may be completed at 9815 and wave (5) may be in progress. (Yesterday’s registered low was 9792 but actual low on charts was 9815, so there can be some irregularity in identifying actual end of waves and calculating Fibonacci levels).

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 9992-10102 which is expected target range on upside whereas 38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 9791 and same is the point below which we can think of any bigger reversal.

Now, let’s analyze the progress of wave (5) started from 9815 (or 9792) on lowest possible time frame chart.

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 9815 which I am expecting as start of wave (5).

Elliott wave analysis of nifty for 20 July 2017

Elliott wave analysis of nifty for 20 July 2017

It seems wave inner wave (i) of (5) completed from 9815-9888, wave (ii) completed at 9861 and wave (iii) may be in progress from 9861.

61% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 9877 below which we can place fresh stoploss for longs.

Conclusion

Nifty bounced again from lower levels as expected and now there are possibilities of further bounce towards 9992-10102 in coming days.

9790 is the point below which we can think of any reversal after confirming with the pattern whereas 9877 can be referred as fresh stoploss for longs.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind to prepare further trading plan.

Trading Point of View:

The safe trading strategies would be: –

  1. Any Nifty longs if taken today after break above 9841 can be hold using fresh stoploss of 9875 (2 points below 9877) expecting upside targets 9992-10102. Use strict stoploss for trade.
  2. Fresh Nifty longs can be taken at present levels in 9899-9877 range using same stoploss of 9875 expecting same targets of 9992-10102. Use strict stoploss for trade.

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Category: Nifty, Uncategorized

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"