Nifty Analysis and Trading Strategy for 14 May 2019

| May 13, 2019

Nifty opened bit lower at 11258, bounced to register day’s high 11300 but failed to sustain at higher levels and decline by 175 points from day’s high to register day’s low 11125 and closed 130 points down at 11148.

Friday, Nifty was in negative zone with 11349-11485 as immediate resistance and 11485 as immediate upside breakeven point and one more decline towards 11141-11014 was possible. Any upside reversal was possible after break above 11485.

Trading strategy was “Selling on Rise” on every 23%-38% bounce or in resistance for immediate downside targets 11141-11014 and overall targets 10585-10004. 11100 Put of 16 May was suggested to buy at 30 through WhatsApp broadcast during live market and same was booked at 60-62. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for 14 May 2019

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at  Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5. Wave 5 achieved minimum 11761 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.

So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.


Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for 14 May 2019

This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart.  Again, there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 11856.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 11370 and same is already broken. 11370 was short/medium term breakeven point and is the deciding point from where Nifty can bounce for new life high or can start further decline towards 10585-10004. Nifty traded below 11370 for 2-3 session and warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks, Nifty achieved 11125 till now.

The pattern formed may be Irregular Correction at top or wave 5 may be progressing as ED.

Now, let’s analyse the decline started from 11856 to check its pattern and internal wave counts.


Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for 14 May 2019

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11856 which I marked as end of wave (C or 3) on daily chart.

It seems, wave (a or 1) may be completed from 11856-11588, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 11588-11789 as irregular correction and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11283-11381. So, 11283-11381 is short/medium term resistance and 11381 is major upside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay above 11381 for a day can result in upside reversal otherwise cautions for further decline towards 10585-10004 are there.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 11796-11625, (ii) may be completed from 11625-11789 as Double Zigzag Correction and wave (iii) may be in progress.

Within wave (iii), it seems inner wave [1] may be completed from 11789-11573, [2] may be completed from 11573-11656, [3] may be completed from 11656-11255, [iv] may be completed from 11255-11347 and wave [5] may be in progress

Wave [5] achieved minimum 38% projection after breaking below 11143 and next 61%-100% projection is placed 11016-10813 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, let’s have a separate look at the progress of wave [5] started from 11347 on lowest possible time frame to check its pattern.

This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11347 which I marked as start of wave [5] on 30 minutes chart.

It seems inner wave [i] of [5] completed from 11347-11291, wave [ii] may be completed from 11291-11345 as very complex type of Double Irregular Correction and wave [iii] may be in progress.

Within wave [iii], it seems inner wave 1 completed 11345-11230, 2 many be completed from 11230-11300 and 3 may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [iii] is placed at 11166-11191. So, 11166-11191 is very immediate resistance and 11191 is immediate upside breakeven point. We can expected further fall towards 11016-10813 without breaking above 11191 but Nifty if break and stay above 11191 for 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 11300-11345.

Conclusion

For Short/Medium Term: – Same as I explained in my last analysis report, Nifty traded below 11370 for 03 sessions and internal pattern also indicating further fall. So, overall conditions are warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks. 11283-11381 is fresh major resistance and we can think of major reversal after break above 11381 only.

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 11166-11191 is very immediate resistance and 11191 is immediate upside breakeven point. We can expect further fall towards 11016-10813 without breaking higher above 11191.

But Nifty if break and stay above 11191 for 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 11300-11345.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

There is no change in overall trading strategy, our main preference will be selling on every 23%-38% rise until we see any confident bullish pattern. Probable downside targets range is 10585-10004 and 11283-11381 is overall resistance now, we will plan to sell in resistance range.

For Intraday or very Short Term, We will look for selling in 11166-11191 range for immediate downside targets 11016-10813, buying can be planed after break above 11191 only.

I will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in pattern/important levels or any low risk trading opportunity during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast. Otherwise, traders can also plan their own trade based on the conditions and levels explained above.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (1)

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  1. BHUPESH GUPTA says:

    Your research is Excellent