This is back dated Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty I prepared on 01 Nov 2015. I posted this analysis report on my blog for my students/subscriber for their future reference with respect to my daily reports as this is explained reports on weekend and further Daily Analysis reports for the week will be continuation of this.
Market shows such tough pattern often but this is biggest corrective pattern after 2012 which started from March 2015 and still running. May be this correction is near its last stage before any big one sided move but it is difficult to calculate the time it may take. Let’s have a fresh look on latest charts.
Please read my complimentary report Is Nifty Heading for New High or New Low – Elliott Wave Analysis which I published on 24 Oct 2015 to understand this report better. Today I am showing wave counts from this year low 7541 and refer above mentioned report for previous counts.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering move after all time high 9117. Different possibilities of this pattern I already explained in the report I mentioned above. Now if I look at this chart then,
The last downward leg from 8655-7541 is an ‘abc’ wave (3 wave’s move). This ‘abc’ decline can either be 2nd/last leg of Double Zigzag correction or can be 2nd leg of Triple Zigzag Correction but it cannot be wave (c) as (c) is always an impulse.
So, this chart shows that either a touch or break of the upper line is possible (around 8380 as of now and will come down as time progress) as Nifty needs to go for new high if this correction is already completed at 7541 as “Double Zigzag” or wave “X” needs to complete above that upper red line if this correction is going to be “Triple Zigzag”.
Though, Nifty needs to touch or break that upper line but we can’t conclude how or when. It may be from present levels or from 7800 or after new low. So, we need to wait and concentrate on inner wave’s pattern before taking any positional entry for 8380.
Let’s have a look at pattern started from this year low 7541. We have two possible patterns for this bounce from 7541-8336 I explained separately.
This is hourly time bar chart of nifty covering move after 7541. This move may be an ‘abc’ wave as shown on chart. But if we see at first daily chart then last decline from 8655-7541 was also ‘abc’. So there are two possibilities here,
- Either this move can be inner wave (1) of Ending Diagonal if Correction is completed at 7541 as Double Zigzag on Daily Chart. Wave (2) can show 38%-61% retracement till 8031-7844 or till 7691 in this case followed by next upside as wave (3). But, wave (1) of ED is very small in this case as normally wave (1) of ED goes near the top (point of confusion).
- Or, this move can be wave (A) of 3-3-5 Flat/Irregular Correction if the whole correction from top 9117 is going to be Triple Zigzag. Wave (B) needs to complete near or below 7541 in this case followed by wave (C) above 8336 to complete wave (X2). But, Wave (X1) from 7997-8655 is already Irregular (point of confusion).
Let me show the other possibility as there are some points of confusions above:
This is again hourly time bar chart of nifty covering move after 7541. May be wave (3 or C) started from 7691 is not completed yet. May be it is just inner wave (iii) of (3 or C) completed at 8242 followed by inner wave (iv) going on as Irregular Correction as shown on chart.
23% retracement of wave (iv) in this case is already achieved and 38% is placed at 8031. Nifty may bounce from 8031-8000 to high above 8336 in this case.
I explained all the possibilities for this pattern (from 7541-8336) because I am not fully confident with anyone. It may help learner to understand how to identify the possibilities and how to identify actual pattern when waves show clarity. Just try to understand and keep all the possibilities in mind.
Now, let’s look at the decline from 8336 to see if we can identify something for short term.
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move last week high 8336. Again, there is not even a 23% correction within this whole decline of 5 day which makes it difficult to identify waves. We can just identify small ‘abc’ Simple Zigzag and Irregular correction in between but tough to identify downward impulses.
We need to wait for at least 23%-38% bounce for clarity in waves but probable count I have shown on chart. Let’s have a look at Intraday Move of Friday to see if we can identify something.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after Friday’s high 8143. It seems a small upside ‘abc’ correction completed at 8143 followed by the start new downward impulse.
And within this downward impulse started from 8143, wave (3) seems completed at 8045 and (4) completed at 8075 and 38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 8037-8014. Means, we can expect a small or big bounce after completion of this impulse.
For short/medium term, the whole pattern is suggesting a break or touch of 8380 but it is difficult to conclude from where or how. Nifty may reverse from 8031-8000 or 7844-7691 or from 7540. So, any long position for target of 8380 can only be taken after clarity in inner wave’s pattern with stoploss.
Please avoid buying any Nov calls of 8300-8400 blindly expecting 8380 immediately as we can’t say how much time it will take and from where it is going to reverse. We need to keep patience and wait for clarity.
For very short term, watch the range of 8031-7995. If we see the signs of completion of impulse within 8031-7995 range (the impulse which I have explain in last 5 minutes chart started from 8143) then Nifty can give small or big bounce from there. We can expect minimum 23%-38% retracement of whole decline from 8336 ((minimum 60-100 points bounce), further we need to see progressing waves.
Nifty is in the pattern where it is easy to find intraday/very short term trading opportunity during live market hours but very difficult to plan any short term or positional trading strategy in advance. Those who have gained knowledge of Elliott Wave Theory can only trade during live market hours after identifying inner wave patterns.
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