Today I am updating latest Elliott Wave counts of Nifty for all time frames in Elliott wave analysis report of Nifty for 06 April as I got time because of long weekend holiday. I will start the counts from monthly charts but let’s have general reference of previous session.
Nifty opened Flat on Wednesday and consolidated in 8470 -8500 range till mid session followed by a good bounce of 100 points to touch the levels of 8600. Nifty closed at 95 points up at 8586 after registering the low of 8465 and high of 8600. Let’s have a look on latest charts, starting with monthly chart of Nifty.
This is monthly chart of Nifty covering move after 2002 when Nifty was around 1000 levels. Counts are same as I explained in many of my previous Elliott wave analysis reports of Nifty.
It seems, a bigger wave 1 was completed in 2008 at 6357 followed by bigger wave 2 which corrected about 61% of 1. And bigger wave 3 was started from 2252 which is somewhere in inner most /smaller degree wave (3) as shown on chart.
Bigger wave 3 just achieved 100% projection till now where 123%, 138% and 161% projections are placed at 9765, 10652 and 12087 respectively which may be achieved in coming weeks/months.
We need to see last inner most wave (3) started from 5118 on separate daily chart to see its progress.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering waves after 5118 which I am expecting as start of inner most waves 3.
Again, it seems,
- Inner waves (1) of 3 completed from 5118 to 6415
- Wave (2) of 3 completed from 6415 to 5933
- Wave (3) of 3 completed from 5933 to 8996 which projected 238% of (1). Inner wave (v) of (3) is highly extended completed as Ending Diagonal Triangle.
- Wave (4) is either completed or in progress which looks like an Irregular Correction and already achieved 23% retracement of (3).
If these counts are correct, then Nifty can rise further 1200 to 1800 points from low after completion of wave (4).
Now, we need to see the progress of wave (4) started from 8996 on separate hourly chart.
This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering wave counts after 8996 which I am expecting as the start of wave (4).
It seems, a corrective wave “abc” completed from 8996 to 8473 followed by another “abc” wave upside which broke previous top and became Irregular. But, next decline from 9117 to 8269 again looks like “abc” rather than impulsive.
So, there are possibilities of “Complex Correction” (Double Zigzag or Triple Zigzag) where
- First “abc” cycle completed from 8996 to 8473
- Irregular (X1) wave completed from 8473 to 9117
- 2nd “abc” completed from 9117 to 8269
Further, it may be a progress of wave (X2) in case of Triple Zigzag which may complete somewhere at upper levels followed by 3rd and last “abc” cycle to show new low before next bull run of 1200 to 1800 points.
The imaginary structure I shown on chart, this is just imaginary structure which is not necessary to be formed. It is just to familiarize you with the possibilities and to show how you can expect “Triple Zigzag Correction”. Just observe further action and it will be a great learning experience if it really happens.
Read in details about Triple Zigzag Correction at Triple Zigzag Correction of Elliott Wave Theory Explained by Deepak Kumar.
May be this corrective wave (4) is already completed as Double Zigzag at 8269 and wave (5) has already started. And there is no way to identify it in advance. The inner waves of Triple Zigzag are often volatile and confusing making it difficult to identify in advance. We can just wait till the identification of any clear picture. Charts will show the clear pattern sooner or later and we need to have patience.
Let’s have a look on latest bounce from 8269 on separate 5 minutes chart.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after last low 8269. It seems an impulse is going on where inner wave (1), (2), (3) and (4) are completed and (5) is in progress as shown on chart. Wave (5) already achieved minimum projection of 38% where 61% and 100% are placed at 8616 and 8716 respectively. Nifty closed near to top in last session which is suggesting some more upside. It seems, wave (5) is somewhere in wave 3 and we need to see move after Monday opening to identify its completion.
This progressing impulse might be inner wave (a) of (X2) or something else as I mentioned above, it is always better to be cautious to predict waves where there is a progress of Complex Correction. Never be overconfident of any pattern.
Nifty is Extremely Bullish in long term and we can expect levels of 9200, 9800 on upside in coming weeks/months and Nifty may not break below 7825 to achieve this. But short term picture is still hazy as there is a possibility of complex correction as I shown on 3rd chart and we need to have patience for identification of any clear pattern.
That is the reason I mentioned in previous report to save money for next Bull rally of 1200 to 1800 points of Nifty as many stop losses can be triggered in volatile and confusing move if there is really a progress of Complex Correction within wave (4).
Any Intraday trades can be done any time with small stop loss after identifying small wave patterns. Any positional position, especially in option must be avoided.