Latest Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty for All Time Frames on 05 April 2015

| April 5, 2015

Today I am updating latest Elliott Wave counts of Nifty for all time frames in Elliott wave analysis report of Nifty for 06 April as I got time because of long weekend holiday. I will start the counts from monthly charts but let’s have general reference of previous session.

Nifty opened Flat on Wednesday and consolidated in 8470 -8500 range till mid session followed by a good bounce of 100 points to touch the levels of 8600. Nifty closed at 95 points up at 8586 after registering the low of 8465 and high of 8600. Let’s have a look on latest charts, starting with monthly chart of Nifty.

Latest Elliott wave counts of Nifty on Monthly Chart

Latest Elliott wave counts of Nifty on Monthly Chart

This is monthly chart of Nifty covering move after 2002 when Nifty was around 1000 levels. Counts are same as I explained in many of my previous Elliott wave analysis reports of Nifty.

It seems, a bigger wave 1 was completed in 2008 at 6357 followed by bigger wave 2 which corrected about 61% of 1. And bigger wave 3 was started from 2252 which is somewhere in inner most /smaller degree wave (3) as shown on chart.

Bigger wave 3 just achieved 100% projection till now where 123%, 138% and 161% projections are placed at 9765, 10652 and 12087 respectively which may be achieved in coming weeks/months.

We need to see last inner most wave (3) started from 5118 on separate daily chart to see its progress.

Latest Elliott wave counts of Nifty on Daily Chart

Latest Elliott wave counts of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering waves after 5118 which I am expecting as start of inner most waves 3.

Again, it seems,

  • Inner waves (1) of 3 completed from 5118 to 6415
  • Wave (2) of 3 completed from 6415 to 5933
  • Wave (3) of 3 completed from 5933 to 8996 which projected 238% of (1). Inner wave (v) of (3) is highly extended completed as Ending Diagonal Triangle.
  • Wave (4) is either completed or in progress which looks like an Irregular Correction and already achieved 23% retracement of (3).

If these counts are correct, then Nifty can rise further 1200 to 1800 points from low after completion of wave (4).

Now, we need to see the progress of wave (4) started from 8996 on separate hourly chart.

Latest Elliott wave counts of Nifty on Hourly Chart

Latest Elliott wave counts of Nifty on Hourly Chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering wave counts after 8996 which I am expecting as the start of wave (4).

It seems, a corrective wave “abc” completed from 8996 to 8473 followed by another “abc” wave upside which broke previous top and became Irregular. But, next decline from 9117 to 8269 again looks like “abc” rather than impulsive.

So, there are possibilities of “Complex Correction” (Double Zigzag or Triple Zigzag) where

  • First “abc” cycle completed from 8996 to 8473
  • Irregular (X1) wave completed from 8473 to 9117
  • 2nd “abc” completed from 9117 to 8269

Further,  it may be a progress of wave (X2) in case of Triple Zigzag which may complete somewhere at upper levels followed by 3rd and last “abc” cycle to show new low before next bull run of 1200 to 1800 points.

The imaginary structure I shown on chart, this is just imaginary structure which is not necessary to be formed. It is just to familiarize you with the possibilities and to show how you can expect “Triple Zigzag Correction”.  Just observe further action and it will be a great learning experience if it really happens.

Read in details about Triple Zigzag Correction at Triple Zigzag Correction of Elliott Wave Theory Explained by Deepak Kumar.

Other Possibility,

May be this corrective wave (4) is already completed as Double Zigzag at 8269 and wave (5) has already started. And there is no way to identify it in advance. The inner waves of Triple Zigzag are often volatile and confusing making it difficult to identify in advance. We can just wait till the identification of any clear picture. Charts will show the clear pattern sooner or later and we need to have patience.

Let’s have a look on latest bounce from 8269 on separate 5 minutes chart.

Latest Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 5 minute Chart

Latest Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 5 minute Chart

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after last low 8269. It seems an impulse is going on where inner wave (1), (2), (3) and (4) are completed and (5) is in progress as shown on chart. Wave (5) already achieved minimum projection of 38% where 61% and 100% are placed at 8616 and 8716 respectively. Nifty closed near to top in last session which is suggesting some more upside. It seems, wave (5) is somewhere in wave 3 and we need to see move after Monday opening to identify its completion.

This progressing impulse might be inner wave (a) of (X2) or something else as I mentioned above, it is always better to be cautious to predict waves where there is a progress of Complex Correction. Never be overconfident of any pattern.

Conclusion:

Nifty is Extremely Bullish in long term and we can expect levels of 9200, 9800 on upside in coming weeks/months and Nifty may not break below 7825 to achieve this. But short term picture is still hazy as there is a possibility of complex correction as I shown on 3rd chart and we need to have patience for identification of any clear pattern.

That is the reason I mentioned in previous report to save money for next Bull rally of 1200 to 1800 points of Nifty as many stop losses can be triggered in volatile and confusing move if there is really a progress of Complex Correction within wave (4).

Any Intraday trades can be done any time with small stop loss after identifying small wave patterns. Any positional position, especially in option must be avoided.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments (20)

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  1. Rahul says:

    As per elliott wave theory, the 3rd wave cannot be the smallest of the waves. You have marked the (iii) of (3) as the smallest among the other waves, I think we should look at other alternative counts. What do you feel ?

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Rahul,

      It is looking smaller wave because of steepness and actually it is bigger that wave (i). Wave (ii) is irregular and wave (iii) is 106% of (i). I have labeled waves after calculations. And there are no alternate counts for me, It is the most probable counts after considering wave’s personalities, patterns and Fibonacci Calculations. And I like to go with single counts till it is following rules.

      • Rahul says:

        Thanks for the reply, yes its a over 100% I calculated in case of an irregular correction.
        Rest the count will confirm itself.
        Regards

  2. rajveer says:

    At 9700 on the nifty you are looking at a P/E ratio of over 26, i think this rally terminates near the early highs at best near 9000, may terminate much earlier than that also, will have to wait and see.

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Rajveer,

      Nifty may not go above 9000 as you are expecting but PE ratio don’t have any limit. When demand is high and when public is willing to spend enough money, real value doesn’t matter. There are stocks and indexes whose PE is -50 and there are other scripts whose PE is 150+. Only PE doesn’t work in Stock Market otherwise no one would be buying at these highs as it is not a tough task to find PE value of Nifty. It is readily available.

  3. rashmi says:

    Hello Deepak!The sgx nifty is not loading on the site.Any problem with that?

  4. jagadeesh says:

    Nifty already completed wave 5 impulsive. Big fall in nifty as larger wave 2 corrective expected in 2015. 2015 is a big year for bears.

  5. gb says:

    The initial wave count seems a bit awkward and doesnt bode well with the impostant points mentioned by you in the basic nature of elliot waves .. in the way that 2003-2007 was wave 3 and not wave 1 as marked…so we may be in wave 5 primary of long term bull market that started well back in late 1990s precisely 1998 …18 year cycle to be completed in 2016 which will again lead to major correction of the like of 2008…
    One alternate count is we may be in 5-(4)-B'(zigzag)…A of the corrective wave broke into 3 wave so exactly it cant be known now how this correction will pan out but post june market should start scaling new heights towards 11k in nifty..
    thanks

    • Deepak Kumar says:

      Dear Gunjan,
      I respect your point of view. These counts may be awkward as per your point of view but I am seeing it as most probable. There is nothing like that “2003-2007 was wave 3 and not wave 1″, No body can bet if it is 3 or 1. Time will say it. I just shown my probable counts what I feel it possible based on my understandings. As I never seen a complete Bigger Elliott Wave Cycle in my life so can’t bet but Charts will show the signs if there is really a crash going to happen.

      And I didn’t covered the chart before 2002 here. But once see the chart from start 07 July 1990 to 1998 and see if you can find any convincing counts which suggests the completion of wave (1). Nifty didn’t broke the high of 1994 in 1998. Nifty broke high of 1994 in 2000. And if bigger wave 1 completed 2000 doesn’t means that 2nd bigger cycle can’t complete in 2008. You are just seeing the steepness of move from 2002 to 2008 but have a look on long consolidation between 1990 to 2000.

      Again your point is noted. Thanks, I am just trying to show what I am understanding and I never say, My counts are definitely right.

      • gb says:

        Hey..I never meant that whatever i said was right it was just about the alternate count.nd i kept 1998 as my starting point …..the volume and intensity of 2003-2007 was just phenomenal so i marked it at wave 3 of any degree…
        thanks for replying though..

        • gb says:

          1990-1998 seems to me the completion of two pattern one 5 wave pattern followed by a 3 wave pattern…again 1992 harshad mehta seems to be wave 3 of any degree …Its very tough to find point zero…
          if u dont mind one more doubt regarding figure 2 marked (i) ..i guess we were done with (i) (ii) and (iii) at that point post that in wave (iv ) we consolidated from 6300 to 4500 …nd from 2011 q4 we started in wave (v) with leading diagonal pattern …and now we are in (v) “4”#b# ..what do you think? Is this one way of alternate count.
          Thanks in advance.

          • Deepak Kumar says:

            Dear Gunjan,

            Again, what harshad mehta said is not necessary to be correct. What he said may not be the end. I show whatever I see myself and whatever I observed myself in last 4 year. Whatever written by RN Elliott in his book is not the end, there is always a scope for new discoveries/inventions.

            And regarding “if u dont mind one more doubt regarding figure 2 marked (i) ..i guess we were done with (i) (ii) and (iii) at that point post that in wave (iv ) we consolidated from 6300 to 4500 …nd from 2011 q4 we started in wave (v) with leading diagonal pattern …and now we are in (v) “4”#b# ..what do you think? Is this one way of alternate count.
            Thanks in advance.”

            My answer, First of all Leading Diagonal is always a wave 1 not wave 5. Leading Diagonal can never be wave 5. And 2nd, That Leading Diagonal as wave (v) as per your expectations didn’t break the high of (iii). As you seeing it as Vth failure. Market don’t rise immediately after 5th failure. 5th failure is a sign of great bearishness.

            It is not about just guessing the counts. Analyze if your counts are following basic rules.

        • Deepak Kumar says:

          Yeah I know, you read in your book that wave 3 is always faster and with great volumes. But it is not the end.

          There are possibilities that wave 1 completed in 2000 around 2000,
          followed by wave 2 completed around 900 in 2002 with almost 61% correction..

          followed by 3 completed at 3800 with more than 161% projection..

          followed by wave 4 till 2600 in 2006 with 23% to 38% correction

          and followed by highly extended wave 5 i 2007 which projected almost 100% with speed.

          Rules and Observations..

          Wave 5 can be highly extended faster than wave 3 if wave 1 is Leading Diagonal or highly stretched (took longer time) which meets the conditions.

          Extended wave 5 offer corrects 100% with same speed as it progressed. Chart till 2008 is carrying that personality. Nifty took 18 months to rise from 2600 to 6357 and declined back to 2252 within a year.And that fall was more than 61% of whole move of last 18 year which is again a satisfactory Fibo retracement of wave 2.

          And you told about 18 year cycle you are assuming from 1998 without even seeing the chart. Lets me give you a point to think. Nifty born in 1990 and completed a cycle in 2008, which is again exactly 18 years. I don’t know anything about this 18 years logic but just giving you a point as you talked about it

          Elliott wave theory is not only about counting waves and seeing volumes, it is a combination of Wave Cycles, Wave Personalities, Wave Patterns and Fibo Calculations. We need to look at every factor before getting into conclusion. Just think again, whatever counts you are expecting are carrying some satisfactory rules???

          • gb says:

            Leading diagonal was 1st wave of major wave 5…neways both the count gives same result till 2016 . Difference will come in degree of intermediate or primary wave ..
            cheers

  6. Bramesh says:

    very nice and detailed analysis.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  7. Leo says:

    the count is wrong.but only time can tell. We are in a liquidity problem and stock mkts can be deceptive. 2015 will be the start of massive bond mkt event which india or other country has never seen.So all this elliot wave theory will go to dust.

    Price projections are all good but TIME is key.no one projects that.