Further Elliott Wave Updates of Nifty after Achieving 11698

| August 28, 2018

Nifty achieved minimum 11698 as explained in my earlier analysis report. (link : Nifty Can Bounce towards 11698-11919 in Short Term) This Elliott Wave Analysis report of Nifty prepared on 27 Aug 2018 is further update on previous analysis.

Nifty opened higher at 11605, registered low 11595 and traded with huge strength for rest of the day. Nifty bounce by more than 140 points to register new all time high 11700 and closed 134 points up at 11691.

Yesterday, Nifty was in very bullish zone with possibility of minimum bounce towards 11698-11919 in coming days. 11530-11499 was immediate support and 11499 was immediate breakeven. Any big or small reversal was expected after break below 11499 only.

I preferred holding 11600 Call of Aug Expiry taken in 11565-11499 range expecting 11698-11919 as upside targets and any fresh buying in Nifty Future was suggested in 11515-11499 range using stoploss of 11487. Nifty finally bounced by 140 points and achieved minimum target 11698. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 9951 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on daily chart

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on daily chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 9951 which I marked as start of wave ‘v’ on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report.

It seems, wave (1) completed from 9951-10929, (2) may be completed from 10929-10417 and wave (3) may be in progress from 10417.

And within wave (3), it seems inner wave (i) of (3) completed from 10417-10893 (pattern not clear), (ii) completed at 10557 as Double Zigzag correction and wave (iii) may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 11430-11263. So, 11430-11263 is fresh medium term support and 11263 is medium term breakeven point. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11263 only.

23%-38% retracement of wave (iii) is 270-437 points. So, Nifty can decline by approx 270-437 points after completion of wave (iii).

And within wave (iii), it seems inner wave [i], [ii], [iii], [iv] may be completed and [v] may be in progress from 11340. Wave [v] achieved minimum 38% projection after breaking above 11698 and next 61% projection is placed at 11919 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave [5] of (iii) started from 11340 to calculate further move.

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on daily chart

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on daily chart

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11340 which I am expecting as start of wave [v] on daily chart. There is no change in wave counts yet.

It seems wave (1), completed from 11340-11406, wave (2) completed from 11406-11350 and wave (3) may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 11617-11566 and same is short term support range on downside. 11566 is short term breakeven point and Nifty to breaks bellow 11566 can decline further towards Medium Term Support 11430-11263.

Within wave (3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 11350-11452, (ii) completed from 11452-11367, wave (iii) may be completed at 11581, wave (iv) may be completed form 11581-11532 as Double Zigzag Correction  and wave (v) may be in progress.

Wave (v) achieved normal 61% projection after breaking above 11664 and next 100% projection is placed at 11746 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave (v) of (3) separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern.

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on 5 minute chart

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on 5 minute chart

This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 11532 which I marked as start of wave (v) on 30 minutes chart.

It seems, inner wave [1], [2] is completed and wave [3] of (v) may be completed at 11700 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [3] is placed at 11662-11639. So, 11662-11639 is immediate support range and 11639 is immediate breakeven point. Nifty if breaks below 11639 can decline further towards short term support 11617-11556. Same 11639 can also be used as stoploss for longs.

Conclusion 

For Short Term,

Nifty achieved minimum 11698 today but pattern doesn’t seem completed. So, Nifty is still in positive zone and there is possibility for further bounce as long as trading above immediate breakeven point.

11662-11639 is immediate support range and 11639 is immediate breakeven point. Nifty if breaks below 11639 for 15 minutes can decline further towards short term support 11617-11556.  And 11556 is short term breakeven point, Nifty if breaks below 11556 can decline further towards medium term support 11430-11263. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11263 only.

It is wave [v] of (iii) of (3) in progress from 11340 which already achieved its minimum projection. Nifty can give approximate 270-437 points decline after completion of this wave (iii). We need to wait for signs of completion of wave (iii) or any reversal pattern.

We needs to keep all these conditions in mind while planning next trade. 

Trading Points of View:

According to fresh conditions on charts: –

Nifty achieved minimum target 11698 but still in bullish zone and there is possibility of further bounce. So, our short term strategy must be hold longs with trailing stoploss until our trailing stoploss triggers or until we identify any confident reversal pattern.

Those who are holding Nifty 11600 call of Aug expiry can use 11679 as trailing stoploss for the trade. This trade can give huge profit if Nifty bounce higher from here but can also erase whole gains if decline because there are just 3 sessions to expiry. So, hold this trade with small trailing stoploss of 11679 and trail stoploss after every rise.

Fresh buying in Nifty Futures can be done if get Nifty Spot in 11650-11639 range using exact stoploss of 11627 expecting targets above 11700.

We can think of selling after seeing a confident reversal pattern only.

These are low risk trading strategies I can suggest in these conditions, otherwise traders can plan their own trades based on the conditions explained above.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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