Further Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 15 July 2016 Onward

| July 14, 2016

Nifty opened flat today and consolidated in 8500-8520 range for most of the day. But later Nifty broke the range on upside and bounced 70 points from low to register day’s high 8571 before closing 45 points up at 8565.

Yesterday our outlook and trading strategy was “Buying on Dips” and suggested to Buy Nifty even if it touch 8527 with stoploss of 8507 expecting minimum targets 8587-8645. Nifty touched 8527 and never retraced back below that point again (personality of wave 3) and also achieved 8571 till now which is more than double of stoploss. So, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Analysis Report of 14 July 2016 (today) is uploaded in my Facebook Group “Practical Application of Elliott’s Wave Theory”. Click this link https://www.facebook.com/groups/sweeglu/ to join the group and get frequent updates.

Today I am covering move from 24 June 2016 low 7927 as previous waves are same as I explained in my previous analysis report Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for 13 July 2016 – Example of Irregular Correction

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 15 July 2016

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 15 July 2016

This is 15 minutes chart of Nifty covering move from 24 June low 7927 which I am expecting as progress of new impulse upside. This is the same chart which I explained in my last report as there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It may be wave (1) completed from 7927-8120, wave (2) completed from 8120-8056, wave (3) completed from 8056-8398, wave (4) may be completed from 8398-8287 and wave (5) is in progress.

Minimum 38% projection for wave (5) is already achieved after break of 8466 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 8578 which is just 7 points away.

So, we need to look at the progress of wave (5) started from 8287 separately to see its further progress.

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 15 July 2016

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 15 July 2016

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 08 July low 8287 which I am assuming as progress of wave (5) till now.

There are 02 repeated upside impulses followed by corrective at bottom looks like wave (i) and (ii) followed by Inner wave (1) and (2) of (iii) completed till 8311 as shown on chart.

And as whole, it seems wave (iii) completed at 8550, wave (iv) completed at 8493 as simple zigzag and next wave (v) is in progress.

Wave (v) still needs to complete its minimum 38% projection at 8587 and next 61% projection is placed at 8645. Wave (v) will be extended after breaking above 61%.

Now we need to look at progress of wave (v) started from 8493 on separate chart to modify or make further trading plan.

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 15 July 2016

Elliott Wave analysis of nifty for 15 July 2016

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 13 July 2016 low 8493 which I am expecting as start of wave (v) of (5).

It seems Wave (1) and (2) is already completed and wave (3) is in progress from 8500 as shown on chart, wave (2) looks like a complex type of Irregular Correction. And wave (3) is within its inner wave (v) which indicates further up move as wave (4) downwards and (5) upwards is still pending after completion of (3).

38% retracement of wave (3) started from 8500 progress till now is placed at 8543 which must be the stoploss for existing longs and the point below which we can think of any reversal.

Conclusion:

Nifty first achieved 8539-8552 range, then gave small correction from this range till 8493 and then bounced back again perfectly as per our advance plan. Overall we are going with this upside from 28 June 2016 after break above 8112 with trailing stop losses perfectly. Now, upside targets are extended further to 8587-8645 range as also explained in my yesterday report.

8543, 38% retracement of wave (3) started from 8500 on last 5 minutes chart is the point below which we can think of any reversal and must be the exact stoploss for existing longs.

Short Term Trading strategy must be “Buying on Dips” and carry the longs taken today after touch of 8527 with initial stoploss of 8507 expecting targets 8587-8645. The modified/trailing stoploss for these longs must be 8542 now (below 38% retracement of wave 3).

Further, start booking profit in 8587-8645 range using trailing stoploss of 38% retracement of wave (3) started from 8500.

Avoid heavy positional selling as long as Nifty is trading above 8543 and use strict stoploss for your trades.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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