Fresh EW Analysis Updates of Nifty for 12 Mar 2019 Onward

| March 12, 2019

Nifty opened higher at 11068, registered low 11059 and bounced further by more than 120 points to register day’s high 11180 and finally closed 132 points up at 11168.

Yesterday, overall Nifty was expected to bounce by 114-160 points either without breaking below 10998 or without breaking below 10950. 10988-10950 was short term support.

Trading strategy was to buy Nifty if get in 10988-10950 range or buy Intraday in 11009-10998 range expecting bounce of 114-160 points. Intraday selling was suggested near 11089 with stoploss of maximum 12-15 point but stoploss for intraday selling was triggered just after opening Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at  Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress.

Point of Cautions: – The reversal after completion of Irregular Correction is known to be sharp but the bounce after 10004 is slower when compared to the speed of wave (c) of Irregular Correction. So, we need to be cautious for one more low below 10004.

Now, let’s analyse the bounce started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 5 Houlry Chart

This is 5 hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart. Pattern is getting clear as Nifty broke above 11118.

It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (C or 3) is placed at 10566-10797 which is normal target range for completion of wave (C or 3).

Wave (C or 3) is in near the end of its inner wave (3) but just achieved 11180, so we can’t say if it will achieve 10556 or not. So, let’s analyse the progress of wave (C or 3) on separate lowest possible time frame.


Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 30 minutes Chart

This is 30 Minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11118 which I marked as start of wave (C) of Irregular Correction on 5 hourly charts.

Earlier, there was possibility of Irregular Correction at 10585 but we need to ignore it now because earlier high 11118 is broken.

Now, wave (a or 1) may be completed from 10585-10939, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 10939-10751 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress. Wave (c or 3) achieved normal 100%-123% projection after entering in 11105-11188 range.

100%-123% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11086-11029. So, 11086-11029 is short term support and 11029 is short term breakeven point. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11029 only.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave [1], [2], [3], [4] is completed and [5] may be in progress. Wave [5] already achieved 61% projection after breaking above 11165 and next 100% projection is placed at 11265, so 11265 is immediate resistance and a small or big decline or consolidation can b expected before breaking above 11265.

Now, let’s analyse the progress of wave [5] separately on lowest possible time frame.


Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 15 minutes Chart

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 10998 which I marked start of inner wave [5] of (c or 3) on 30 minutes chart.

Inner wave [i] of [5] may be completed from 10998-11089 as Leading Diagonal Triangle (LD), wave [ii] may be completed from 11089-11009 and wave [iii] may be completed at 11180 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of wave [iii] is placed at 11139-11114. So, 11139-11114 is immediate support and 11114 is immediate breakeven point. Nifty can give one more bounce of 70-110 points without breaking below 11114.

Conclusion

For Short/Medium Term: – Overall pattern is indicating minimum bounce towards 11566-11797 but inner waves of overall pattern are comparatively smaller to achieve this range, so we need to concentrate on small internal waves to calculate immediate moves.

11086-11029 is short term support and 11029 is short term breakeven point. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11029 only. Whereas 11265 is immediate resistance and a small or big decline can be expected before breaking above 11265.

11139-11114 is immediate support and 11114 is immediate breakeven point. Nifty can give one more bounce of 70-110 points without breaking below 11114. This support range will move higher after Nifty breaking above 11180, fresh support will be calculated as 23%-38% retracement of total move from 11009-new high. Nifty can decline further towards 11086-11029 if breaks and stay below 11114 for 15 minutes.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

Short term trading strategy must be “Buying on Dips” near breakeven point expecting further bounce. Immediate Breakeven Point is 11114 whereas overall short term breakeven point is 11029. Safe traders need to be strict to Intraday Trades because the coming months are going to be volatile and wild unexpected moves can’t be ruled out.

  1. Buying can be done if get Nifty in 11130-11114 range (near immediate breakeven point) using exact stoploss of 11105 expecting 70-110 points bounce.
  • If stoploss of 11105 triggers then next low risk buying range is 11050-11029 with stoploss of 11017 expecting bounce of 150-250 points.

Any confident Selling can be planned after break below 11029 only.

These are low risk trading strategies I can suggest in such conditions, otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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