Fresh Elliott Wave Charts of Nifty for 03 Oct 2018

| October 2, 2018

Nifty opened flat at 10930 and declined sharply after opening to register day’s low 10821 but bounced back again by more than 200 points from day’s low to register day’s high 11035 and closed 77 points up at 11008.

Yesterday, 10836-10763 was mild support, 10994-11088 was immediate resistance and 10940 was breakeven point. Nifty was expected to bounce towards 10994-11088 if breaks above 10940.

Trading strategy was to trade based on the levels and conditions explained, I explained different conditions but didn’t suggested any exact trade in advance. Nifty opened near breakeven point, declined sharply to enter support range 10836-10763 but bounced back from support range by 200 points to enter resistance range of 10994-11088. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering decline from all time high 11760 because previous wave counts are explained in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 01 Oct 2018

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on Hourly chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11760 which I am analyzing independently because there is bit confusion on higher time frames.

There is impulse completed from 11760-11269 and same can be assumed as wave (A), Irregular Correction from 11269-11523 can be marked as wave (B) and wave (C) may be in progress.

Within wave (C), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii) completed till 10866, (iv) may be completed at 11191 and (v) may be in progress. Wave (v) already achieved its minimum 38% projection and next 61% projection is placed at 10784 which may or may not be achieved.

Confusion: – Pattern of wave (iv) of (C) from 10866-11191 looks like an Impulse and is not clear because of sharp decline of 400 points followed by bounce of 320 points bounce in a single session.

Pattern of wave (v) looks like an Ending Diagonal Triangle, so let’s analyze the progress of wave (v) of (C) started from 11191 on separate chart.

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 15 minutes chart

Elliott wave counts of Nifty on 15 minutes chart

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11191 which I am expecting as start of wave (v) of (C) on hourly chart.

This decline also consists of repeated (abc) waves, and the same is indicating that wave (v) of (C) is progressing as Ending Diagonal Triangle.

So, inner wave [1] of ED may be completed from 11191-10882 as (abc) wave, [2] may be completed from 10882-11145 as Simple Zigzag Correction, wave [3] may be completed from 11145-10821 (achieved 100%-123% projection), and wave [4] may be in progress.

Wave [4] of ED can never break the start of wave [3]. Start of wave [3] is 11145 and same is pattern negation point. So, wave [4] needs to complete below 11145 (in 11035-11145 range) followed by one more decline for low below 10821 as wave [5] if I am right at identifying ED.

Completion of Ending Diagonal pattern will complete wave (C). So, we can expect a minimum small bounce after completion of ED, bounce can be of minimum 160-250 points [23%-38% retracement of wave (C)] of towards new all time high.

Conclusion

There is possibility of Ending Diagonal started from 9687 but it is just a possibility for awareness and not confirmed yet. But if this is really an ED and running since 1 year then coming months are going to be tougher with lots of confusions because Diagonal Triangle is a complex pattern and last phase of ED is known for abnormal moves. So, I will keep watch on this possibility and will update as required.

For very short term/Intraday, again there is a possibility of ED at bottom started from 11191 which is within inner wave [4]. So, short term outlook is also tough because of possibility of ED.

Pattern and Fibonacci Ratio wise, 11035-11145 is resistance with 11145 as pattern negation point and 10821-10784 is support on downside.

Generally, Nifty can … (general outlook and trading strategies are for clients only).

I posted this analysis report for my book subscribers for future reference because there is possibility of important complex pattern Ending Diagonal triangle (ED) in this report.  But, I am not sharing general outlook and trading strategies for the interest of my paid clients.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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