Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 24 Sep 2019 Onward

| September 23, 2019

Nifty opened huge gap up at 11572 and declined by 100 points to register day’s low 11471 but bounce back again by more than 200 points to register day’s high 11694 before closing 326 points up at 11600.

Yesterday, 11213-11109 was immediate support and 11109 was immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty was expected to bounce further by 271-439 points from support or could fall towards 10637 again if stay below 11109 for 15 minutes.

No exact trade was suggested in yesterday’s report because support range 11213-11109 and stoploss was big. Nifty opened huge gap up at 11572 so all the support/resistance levels were changed. Latest updates with fresh levels and fresh outlook were sent to “Live Update Subscribers”. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on daily Chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [5] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave [iii] of [5] is completed at 11171 and [iv] may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave [v] may be in progress. Wave [v] achieved minimum projections after breaking above 11761 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 12689 which may or may not be achieved. Wave [v] achieved 12103 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.

So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on daily Chart

This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave [v] of [5] on daily chart.  

The bounce from 10004-12103 is confirmed as (abc) because of overlapping of waves after break below 10985. Earlier we had 02 possibilities for this setup but possibility of Irregular Correction is almost negated because of this big bounce. Now, Ending Diagonal Triangle is most probable pattern for this setup.

Now, the (abc) bounce from 10004-12103 is inner wave (1) of Ending Diagonal Triangle for wave [v]. If this is the case then Nifty can decline towards 10585 to complete wave (2) of ED and later Nifty can bounce slowly with volatility for new high to complete wave (3), (4) and (5) of ED.

Nifty declined almost till 10585 (registered low 11637) and bounced back, so may be wave (2) of ED is already completed at 10637 and wave (3) of ED is started. If wave (3) is started then it will have (abc) pattern, so bounce towards new high will have many volatile up and down moves.

Moreover, if it really ED started from 10004 then next 1-2 years are going to be tough for analysts and traders. Many TA indicators fails to deliver results during Ending Diagonal and this ED will be very big.

But Nifty left a Question Mark at the bottom before this big bounce and same I am going to explain on hourly chart.

So, let have a separate look at move after 10782 on Hourly Time Frame chart.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on hourly Chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 10782 which I marked as start of wave (iv) on daily chart.

The bounce from 10782-11181 is Simple Zigzag (abc) move, thus meeting the requirement of wave (iv). But if we assume wave (iv) completed at 11181 then wave (v) from 11181-10670 doesn’t look like Impulse or Ending Diagonal Triangle. This condition will be a question mark for time being.

But no matter if this last down leg from 11181-11637 is Impulse or Corrective, we can calculate next moves based on the pattern of bounce after 10637 only. So, let’s ignore earlier move for time being and concentrate on the pattern of bounce after 10637.

After 10637, it seems wave [a or 1] completed from 10637-11141, wave [b or 2] completed from 11141-10670 and wave [c or ] may be either completed from 10670-11694 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11452-11302. So, 11452-11302 is immediate support and 11302 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay below 11302 can result in further decline towards 10670-10637. Otherwise one more bounce of 400-600 points can be there if Nifty fails to break below 11302.

It is tough to count inner wave of [c or 3] because of its sharpness and big gap up. But there are signs of clear Impulsive pattern after 11238, so let’s analyse the move after 10238 on lowest possible time frame.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 5 minutes Chart

This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11238 which I am analysing independently.

The bounce after 11238 seems impulsive with inner wave (1), (2), (3), (4) completed till 11471 and wave (5) may be in progress. Wave (5) already achieved minimum 38% projection whereas next 61%-100% projection is placed at 11731-11893 which may or may not be achieved. 100% projection 10893 is a rare case.

Within wave (5), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii) is completed and (iv) or (v) may be in progress. 38% retracement of progress of whole wave (5) is placed at 11608. So, 11608 is immediate downside breakeven point.

If inner wave (iv) is completed at 11573 than wave 61%-100% projection for wave (5) is placed at 11710-11796. 100% projection 11796 is a rare case. I didn’t calculate 38% projection for wave (v) because it falls below the end of (iii).

Overall from this chart, 11731-11796 is coming as immediate resistance and we can expect a small of big decline before breaking above 11796. Whereas 11608 is immediate downside breakeven point, staying below 11608 can result in further decline towards major support 11452-11302.

Conclusion

For Long Term, there is possibility of Ending Diagonal (ED) Triangle pattern for the move after 11004. If it is really going to be ED then next 1-2 years are going to be tough for Analysts and traders because many TA indicators fails to give desired results during ED. And this ED will be big because its inner waves (1) itself is of 2000 points. Nifty can rise with many volatile and unexpected up/down swing if it is going to be Ending Diagonal Triangle as I explained on Daily Chart.

Levels wise, Nifty can either bounce towards new life high or can fall below 10637 again and 11302 is breakeven point between these 02 possibilities. Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 11302 whereas breaking below 11302 will turn major trend as negative again. 11452-11302 is major support now.

For very short term/Intraday trade, 11608 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty if stay below 11608 for 15 minutes can result in further decline towards major support 11452-11302, next outlook can be calculated after observing the pattern is major support only.

On upside, 11731-11796 is immediate resistance. Nifty can give a small or big decline before breaking higher above 11796.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

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For Intraday/very short term, Nifty if trades below 11608 continuously for 15 minutes then further bounce towards 11608-11641 can be used to sell Nifty using exact stoploss of 11643 expecting decline towards 11452-11302. Trade needs to be managed with trailing stoploss if activates and need to exit Intraday even if in profit or loss.

On upside, small risk can be taken to sell Nifty if get near 11796 with stoploss of 11803 expecting minimum 60-90 points decline. Decline can extend even further so trade need to be manage with trailing stoploss.

Otherwise, Nifty is very volatile so patterns can complete in quick time and levels can change frequently. Any changes can be identified during live market hours only.

Further, I will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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