Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frames as on 14 Aug 2017

| August 14, 2017

Nifty registered all time high 10137 on 02 Aug 2017 and then declined sharply by more than 400 points to break medium term breakeven point 9873 last Thursday. Now, break of medium term breakeven point and sharp impulsive decline from high is indicating the possibility of good correction which may take some time to complete. And we need to have a fresh look at long term and medium term wave patterns for more clarity.

So, today I am revising wave counts on all time frames to see if I can identify something different or interesting. Let’s start with a monthly chart covering life time move of Nifty.

This analysis is further update on my last “All time Frame” report Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty using All Time Frames

Elliott wave counts of nifty on monthly chartElliott wave counts of nifty on monthly chart

Elliott wave counts of nifty on monthly chart                                                                                                                                                         

This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering life time move of Nifty. It seems inner wave {[v] of [3] of (iii) of Biggest (3)} is in progress on largest time frame or on main wave cycle of Nifty. Please read the counts on chart carefully and detailed explanation of these counts is given in my previous all time frame report.

On long term, there is no change in wave counts.  Counts on chart are indicating that Nifty have long wave to go with occasional corrections.

Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave [3] started from 5118 on separate weekly chart.

Elliott wave counts of nifty on weekly chart

Elliott wave counts of nifty on weekly chart

This is weekly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 5118 which I have marked as start of wave {[3] of (iii) of (3)} on monthly chart.

It seems inner waves [i], [ii], [iii], [iv] of [3] are completed and [v] may be in progress. Wave [v] of [3] already achieved 61%-70% projection after breaking above 9628 and next 100% projection is placed at 10826 which may or may not be achieved.

Wave [v] achieved all minimum Fibonacci projections, now we need to check if pattern of wave [v] is completed or not.

So, let’s analyze wave [v] started from 6825 separately on lowest time frame (daily) chart to check if wave [v] completed or not.

Elliott wave counts of nifty on daily chart

Elliott wave counts of nifty on daily chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 6825 which I am expecting as start of wave [v] on monthly chart.

It seems inner wave 1 of [v] completed from 6825-8968, 2 completed at 7893 and wave 3 may be completed at 10137 or still in progress. Wave 3 of [v] achieved minimum 100% projection after registering 10136.

Normal 23%-38% retracement of wave 3 is placed at 9607-9279. So, 9607-9279 is expected downward range we can expect for ongoing correction. This chart gave estimated levels for ongoing correction.

And now, we needs to analyze on pattern of correction started from 10137 on lowest possible time frame to calculate short term movement and scenario.

Elliott wave counts of nifty on 15 minute chart

Elliott wave counts of nifty on 15 minute chart

This is  15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from all time high 10137 which I am expecting as start medium term correction.

The decline from 10137 seems impulsive with inner wave (1) completed from 10137-9988, (2) completed from 9988-10088 and wave (3) may be already completed at 9685 or still in progress because progress of wave (3) is still steep without any reasonable correction.

Normal 23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 9780-9838. So, 9780-9838 is the range from where Nifty can decline for new low again and 9838 is the point above which we can think of any upside reversal.

This impulsive decline started from 10137 can be progress of wave (A) of correction and we can expect 38%-61% retracement of wave (A) after its completion for wave (B) followed by bigger wave (C) downward, more than or equal to wave (A).

The whole probability I have explained on chart with imaginary red/blue lines. Please try to read and understand wave counts and scenario explained on 15 Minutes chart carefully. So, whole correction can be even bigger in this case.

Conclusion

For Long Term: – Nifty still have a very long way to go for long term because it is just inner wave [3] of (iii) of bigger (3) in progress and all these waves needs to complete to fulfil requirements of Elliott Wave Cycle. So, every decline or correction is an opportunity to catch next bull rally.

For Medium Term: – Nifty breached medium term breakeven point 9873 and the decline is also impulsive which is giving the sign of good correction. Because the impulsive decline can be wave (A) of correction and we can expect wave (B) upward followed by wave (C) downward for completion of this whole correction.

9607-9279 is estimated range for completion of this ongoing correction and 9838 is breakeven point on upside at the movement of time. Any immediate bounce towards 9780-9838 can be sold again for new low. Stoploss for any shorts can be placed above 9838.

For short term: – A bounce of 90-150 points from low [23%-38% retracement of wave (3)] can be expected soon but there will be cautions for decline again after short term bounce. Exact bottom before this short term bounce cannot be calculated.

Trading Point of View:

Form medium term, any bounce near 9838 (towards 9820-9838) can be sold with stoploss some points above 9838 (can be 9851) expecting targets below new low again.

For Intraday or short term: – Nifty if trades above tomorrow’s opening price at 9:31 AM then Nifty can be bought at 9:31 AM using stoploss of day’s low (low made till 9:31 AM) expecting bounce of 90-150 points from low. Use strict stoploss for trade.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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