Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018

| June 4, 2018

Today I am revising wave counts on all time frames to identifying the changes and to conclude the further possible road map of Nifty in Long, Medium and Short Term as last “All Time Frames” analysis report I prepared 3 months back in March.

Friday, there was a possibility of sharp decline towards 10630-10549 but Nifty need to decline without delay. Any delay in fall could result in further higher levels.

Trading Strategy was to initiate strategic shorts using stoploss of 10764 and hold for next day only if Nifty closes near low of the day. Nifty declined after registering high and closed near low of the day but after touching just 10764. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further decline.

So, let’s have a fresh look at all time frames again to conclude further possibilities. Read my last analysis report on all time frames at Nifty is Still Bullish for Medium and Long Term – Fresh EW Analysis on All Time Frames

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Monthly Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Monthly Chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering life time move of Nifty. It seems Major wave (1) is completed at 6357, (2) completed at 2252 and (3) may be in progress from 2252.

Within wave (3) started from 2252, it seems inner wave (i), (ii) is complete and (iii) in progress from 4531.

And with wave (iii) started from 4531, it seems inner wave [1], [2] is complete and [3] in progress from 5118.

And with wave [3] started from 5118, it seems inner wave [i], [ii], [iii], [iv] is complete and [v] in progress from 6825.

Overall, Nifty is somewhere in the middle of major wave (3). So Nifty is still in the long term bullish trend and there is long way to go for Nifty with occasional corrections.

The waves are clear till 6825 on this chart. So, we need to analyze the move after 6825 on lowest possible time frame which is the end of inner wave {[v] of [3] of (iii)} of larger (3).

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 6825 which I am expecting as start of wave {[v] of [3] of (iii)} of larger (3) on monthly chart.

It seems inner wave 1 of [v] completed from 6825-8968, 2 completed at 7893 and wave 3 may be in progress.

And within wave 3 started from 7893, there is small but identifiable correction from 10137-9687, so 10137 can be end of inner wave ‘iii’ of 3 followed by (abc) correction from 10137-9687. But the later bounce from 9687-11171 is also 3 waves move followed by sharp impulsive decline from 11171-9951.

So, there is possibility wave ‘iv’ of 3 is completed from 10137-9951 as Irregular Correction with wave (a) completed from 10137-9687, Irregular (b) completed from 9687-11171 and wave (c) completed from 11171-9951.

If wave ‘iv’ is already completed at 9951 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave ‘v’ is placed at 10808-11337 whereas earlier high is 11171. S0, 11171-11337 is minimum target range for completion of wave ‘v’.

But if I am wrong at identifying Irregular Correction at top and some short of impulse completed at 11171 then Nifty can give one more decline below 9951 and 9918 is Breakeven point whereas 8968 is pattern negation point in this case.

Nifty may not break below 8968 in any case in coming year before competition of larger wave cycle.

Now, let’s concentrate on the progress of expected wave ‘v’ started from 9951 on lowest possible time frame.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 5 Hourly Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 5 Hourly Chart

This is 5 Hour time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 9951 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave (1) completed from 9951-10229, wave (2) completed from 10229-10111 as Irregular Correction and wave (3) may be completed at 10929, wave (4) may be completed at 10417 as Simple Zigzag and wave (5) may be in progress. [Wave (4) retraced deeper than 38%).

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 10790-11021 but end of wave (3) is 10929. So, 10929-11021 is minimum target range on upside in this case.

Nifty can decline below 10417 only if wave (4) turns into Complex Correction (Double Zigzag or Triple Zigzag) otherwise Nifty is heading for high above 10929 again. And we can get clue of next possibility by analyzing the progress of wave (5) started from 10417.

Let’s analyze the progress of expected wave (5) started from 10417 on lowest possible time frame chart to check its pattern closely.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 15 Minute Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 15 Minute Chart

This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 10417 which I have marked as start of wave (5) on 5 hourly chart.

It seems an Impulse completed from 10417-10764 as marked on chart and same Impulse can be inner wave (i) of (5).

38%-61% of this upside impulse is placed at 10631-10549 and inner wave [5] of this impulse started from 10558 is extended. So, Nifty can decline towards 10558 again in coming days if I am right at identifying the pattern.

Within the decline started from 10764, it seems inner wave (a or 1) , (b or 2) completed and (c or 3) may be in progress from 10736. But Nifty is also indicating a possibility of further decline towards 10631-10558, so 10736 [start if wave (c or 3)] must be used as stoploss for shorts.

Note: – The pattern of inner wave [5] of (i) on 15 minutes chart is tricky, I have shown most probable wave counts of this wave [5] on separate 5 minutes chart below. It is important for learners to understand the counts.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 5 Minute Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 5 Minute Chart

This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 10417. This chart is covering inner wave of wave [5] marked on 15 minutes chart. This chart is just for student to understand the counts.

Conclusion

For long/medium term,

Outlook for medium/long term is still bullish because Nifty is within the middle of wave (3) on largest wave cycle and there is Irregular Correction at top. Nifty has long way to go with occasional corrections (maximum 23%-38% corrections with 9918 as breakeven point and 8968 as pattern negation point. Nifty may not break below 8968 in any case in coming year before competition of larger wave cycle.  We need to revise whole wave counts if Nifty ever broke below 8968.

For Short Term,

Nifty has possibility to decline further towards 10631-10558 but later move can be calculated after seeing the pattern completed in 10631-10558 range. And Nifty needs to decline sharply towards 10558 (within 1-2 sessions) if it has to decline, otherwise any delay in fall or consolidation can result in further bounce.

10736 (start of innermost downward impulse) can be used as stoploss for any shorts.

Trading Points of View:

Long/medium outlook of Nifty is bullish but we can’t trade on long term view. But Indian Market is still safe for long term investing and every correction can be used for accumulating good stock based on your analyzing method (Technical or Fundamental). Otherwise Elliott Wave Theory suggests that any stock which is trading above its all time low since 5-8 years and doesn’t start its wave (3) is good for investment.

For Short term, Nifty still had possibility to decline sharply towards 10558 with 10630 as immediate destination and 10736 can be used as stoploss for shorts. So, if someone holding short from Friday Highs can hold the same with stoploss of 10737 (just one points above 10736) expecting downward targets 10630-10558, and hold for next day only if Nifty closes near low of the day (20 points near day’s low), booking part profit is good for those who trades in multi lots.

Otherwise, Nifty is still in negative zone as long as trading below 10736 and we can think of any longs after break above 10736 only. Traders can also plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

Click Here to Learn Practical Application of Elliott Wave Theory  in real time trading/investment from the deep experience and true knowledge of Deepak Kumar .

Click Here to subscribe for  Daily Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Nifty with Stop loss and Trading Strategy by email.

Click Here to know what subscribers/clients says about my services

Tags: , ,

Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"