Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 03 Dec 2018

| December 2, 2018

Nifty opened gap up at 10892, bounced further to register day’s high 10922 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined back to register day’s low 10835 and closed 18 points up at 10876.

Friday, Nifty was in positive zone with 10790-10732 as short term support and 10732 as immediate breakeven point. Any reversal was expected after breaking below 10732 only.

Trading strategy was “Buying on Dips” in support range near breakeven point and selling was suggested after break below 10732 only but no exact trade was suggested. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for 03 Dec 2018

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for 03 Dec 2018

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report.

The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.

So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at  Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave ‘5’ is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760. So, 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave ‘5’.

But the move and target is big, so we need to proceed step by step and need to concentrate on bounce started from 10004 to calculate internal moves.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for 03 Dec 2018

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for 03 Dec 2018

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5 of [v] on daily chart.

Now it seems wave (1), (2) is completed and wave (3) may be in progress from 10014. Normal 23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 10707-10575. So, 10707-10575 is short term support and 10575 is short term breakeven point on downside. Nifty can fall further to register on more low below 10004 if breaks below 10575.

Within wave (3), inner wave (i), (ii), (iii) may be completed till 10645, (iv) may be completed at 10489 as irregular correction and wave (v) may be in progress.

Wave (v) already achieved 61% projection after breaking above 10878 and next 100% projection is placed at 11120 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, let’s analyse the progress of inner wave (v) of (3) on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for 03 Dec 2018

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty for 03 Dec 2018

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from low 10489 which I marked as start of inner wave (v) on hourly chart.

It seems inner wave [1] of (v) may be completed from 10489-10637, [2] may be completed from 10637-10598 and wave [3] may be completed at 10922 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of whole move till wave [3] is placed at 10819-10756. So, 10819-10756 is immediate support and 10756 is breakeven point on downside. I calculated 23%-38% retracement of whole move because wave [2] is negligible.

Conclusion

For Medium/Long Term: – There is no change in medium/long term outlook, the first Impulse from low 10004 bounced above Reflex Point 10710 which is indicating first sign of bigger reversal for new high above 11760. Now, Nifty can decline below 10004 only if the overall correction started from 11760 turns into Irregular/Complex Correction.

Wave (C) is very big, so we need to proceed step by step and must concentrate on the internal pattern of bounce started from 10004 to decide further trades.

For short term: – 10819-10756 is fresh support and 10756 is short term breakeven point on downside. Nifty is still in positive zone as long as trading above support range and any downside reversal can be expected after break below 10756.

10707-10575 is next support range after 10756 and Nifty if breaks below 10575 can fall further for new low below 10004.

Minimum upside target is already achieved and maximum targets are extended till 11120.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Points of View:

Nifty is in positive zone with 10819-10756 as short term support and 10756 as breakeven point. Minimum upside target are achieved but maximum can extend till 11120 or even more.

Nifty already achieved minimum upside targets, so we need to wait for correction towards 10819-10756 to decide fresh trade. Nifty can be bought near breakeven point 10756 but after confirming the pattern of correction, so confident trade can be decided after seeing the pattern of decline only.

Any selling can planned after break below 10575 only because 10756 is immediate breakeven point but 10707-10575 is next support after 10756.

Overall, we have levels but conditions are not favourable to decide any trade in advance. Only swing/intraday trades can be planned during market hours by identifying small internal pattern. So, traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained if conditions favours.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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