EW Analysis and Trading Strategy of Nifty for 02 Nov 2017 Onward

| November 1, 2017

Nifty opened higher at 10390, bounced sharply after opening and traded with huge strength for rest of the day. Nifty bounced more than 110 points to register day’s high 10451 and closed 105 points up at 10440.

Yesterday, I mentioned that outlook of Nifty is positive and there is possibility for one more bounce above 10384 towards 10422-10483.  10306 was immediate breakeven point on downside below which I expected short term reversal. Nifty bounce by 100 points and registered new life time high 10440. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am covering bounce from 28 Sep 2017 low 9687 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 16 Oct 2017 Onward

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on hourly chart

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on hourly chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from low 9687 which I marked as start of new upside impulse.

May be wave (1) completed from 9786-9945, (2) completed from 9945-9881 and wave (3) may be in progress from 9881. Further within wave (3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 9881-10015, (ii) completed from 10015-9955 as Irregular correction and (iii) may be completed at 10355 or still in progress.

And wave (iii) seems within its inner wave 5. Wave 5 of (iii) achieved 100% projection and trading above it.

38% retracement of progress of wave (3) started from 9881 is placed at 10233. So, 10233 is the medium term breakeven point below which we can expect any medium term reversal.

Now, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 of (iii) started from 10123 on separate 55 minute chart for short term levels.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on 15 minute chart

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on 15 minute chart

This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty bounce after 24 Oct low 10124 which I marked at start of wave 5 on 30 minute chart.

It seems inner wave (1) of 5 completed from 10124-10236, (2) completed from 10236- 10183, wave (3) may be completed from 10183-10383, wave (4) may be completed from 10383-10323 and wave (5) may be in progress.

Minimum 38% projection for wave (5) is placed at 10422 which is already achieved and next 61% projection is placed at 10483 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, lets have a separate look at progress of wave (5) started from 10323 on lowest possible time frame chart.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on 5 minute chart

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty on 5 minute chart

This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 10323 which I had marked as start of wave (5) of 5 on 15 minute chart.

It seems inner wave (i) completed at 10361, (ii) completed at 10328, (iii) completed at 10450 and wave (iv) or (v) may be in progress.

38% retracement of wave (iii) is placed at 10401. So, 10401 is short term breakeven point below which we can think of any short term reversal and same can be refereed as stoploss for longs. Nifty has possibility to give one more bounce without breaking much below 10401.

If wave (iv) is already completed at 10425 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 10473-10503.

Overall, 10401 is the short term breakeven point which is valid until 10473 is achieved.

Conclusion

Nifty bounced by more than 100 points again and registered new life time high 10451 but still there is no sign of reversal. Short term outlook is still positive and Nifty has possibility to give one more bounce for new high. 10233 is medium term breakeven point below which we can think of any medium term reversal.

For short term, breakeven point is 10401 and nifty has possibility to bounce towards 10473-10503 without breaking much below 10401. Stoploss for any longs must be placed some points below 10401. Breakeven point 10401 is valid until 10473 is achieved.

Trading Point of View:

The trading startegy for short term must be Buying on Dips until minimum 10473 is achieved and as long as Nifty is trading above 10401.

Nifty if declines near 10401 without achieveing 10473 then light longs can be created using stoploss some points below 10401 ( stoploss can be 10389) expecting minimum target of new all time high.

But if Nifty bounce above 10503 straightway then small risk can be taken to buy 10300 Nov put above 10503 till further updates. Buy in minimum quantity because trade is against the trend and we don’t have exact stoploss.

Also read,

Click Here to Learn Practical Application of Elliott Wave Theory  in real time trading/investment from the deep experience and true knowledge of Deepak Kumar .

Click Here to subscribe for  Daily Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Nifty with Stop loss and Trading Strategy by email.

Click Here to know what subscribers/clients says about my services

Tags: , ,

Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments are closed.