Elliott Wave Updates of Nifty for 29 Dec 2015 Onwards

| December 28, 2015

This Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 29 Dec 2015 I am posting as updates on my yesterday’s report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for Dec 2015 Expiry Week as outlook given in this report is almost failed.

Nifty opened flat today at 7963 but bounced sharply and traded with strength for whole day. Nifty bounced gradually to register day’s high of 7937 before closing 64 points up at 7925.

Yesterday I suggested selling with stoploss of 7889 which triggered within first 15 minutes of trade. Nifty also breached 7919 which was 61% projection I also suggested last stoploss for any shorts because I was not able to conclude the pattern after breaking above 7919. Now, let’s see what is there for coming days.

Today’s  I am showing wave counts from 11 Dec low 7551 as previous counts are same as I explained in my previous report Elliott Wave Targets of Nifty for 17 Dec 2015 after Fed Meet.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 29 Dec 2015

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 29 Dec 2015

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after Monday’s low 7551. If I look at this move then I am not able to identify any pattern other than what I have shown on chart. If I keep in minds wave’s cycle and rules then it seems wave (3) completed at 7852, wave (4) completed at 7733 and wave (5) in progress.

Wave (5) already achieved 61% projection and got extended whereas 100% projection is placed at 8034.

But, if I look separately at wave (5) started from 7733 then the pattern is not convincing for wave (5). I am not able to identify any Impulse or Ending Diagonal in this move which is creating doubts in whole pattern. So, let’s me show you move after 7733 on separate 5 minutes chart.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 29 Dec 2015

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for 29 Dec 2015

This is 5 minutes time bar chart Nifty covering bounce after 18 Dec 2015 low 7733 which I have shown as wave (5) on above 15 minutes chart.

If I look at the move after 7733 then it seems an impulse completed from 7733-7840 followed by ‘abc’ correction from 7840-7776. Then again it seems an impulse completed from 7776-7888 followed by ‘abc’ correction from 7888-7853 and then again there is impulsive move from 7835. This impulsive followed by corrective cannot be wave 1,2,3 and 4 as (4) overlapped (2) in this case.

So, either this pattern is wave (1) and (2) followed by inner wave (i) and (ii) of (3) but Nifty needs to give huge and fast move upside from here in this case. Or there is something else which I am not able to identify. But this is not a convincing pattern for wave (5).

Conclusion:

By seeing wave counts on all the charts, I am not able to conclude any confident result as 15 minutes chart is suggesting the move from 7551 as waves (12345) but I am not able to identify any convincing pattern within wave (5).

But conditions are suggesting a big move in coming days because,

  1. If bounce from 7733 is impulsive then wave (5) started from 7733 is extended so we can expect a sharp decline till 7733 in coming days.
  1. And Nifty needs to give good move upside to go upside as there are repeated upside impulsive followed by downward correctives at top.

So for trading points of View,

Long in both side options of Jan 2016 series may be safe/profitable as Nifty Jan 2016 options are available at cheap price because of VIX is at 14.5 and IV of Nifty Calls and Puts is also low. On the other hand, Nifty charts are suggesting a good move in short term.

One can buy both 8100 Jan Call and 7700 Jan Put in equal quantity. 8100 Call is available at 53 and 7700 put is available at 46 with combined premium of 100 points. One can buy with stoploss of 70 expecting targets 130, 180 in short term. One can hold till 10 Jan 2016.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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