Elliott Wave Updates of Nifty for 14 Dec 2016

| December 14, 2016

Nifty opened mild gap up at 8196 and declined sharply to register day’s low 8155 but bounced from lower levels and traded with positive bias for rest of the day. Nifty bounced by 70 points from low to register day’s high 8228 before closing 51 points up at 8221.

Yesterday, shorts were suggested in 8182-8199 range with stoploss of 8203. Nifty declined by 40 points after opening at 8196 but stoploss of 8203 was triggered later. It must be 20-25 points loss if traded. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am covering bounce from 21 Nov 2016 low 7916 to conclude short term scenario and previous wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 05 Dec 2016

Possibility of Irregular Correction

Possibility of Irregular Correction

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 21 Nov 2016 low 7916. This is the same chart with explanation which I explained in my last report because there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

An impulse seems completed from 7916-8250 with inner wave (1) may be completed from 7916-8055 (pattern is not clear), wave (2) may be completed from 8055-7952, wave (3) may be completed from 8055-8122, wave (4) may be completed from 8122-8066 and wave (5) may be completed from 8066-8250 as ED which projected more than 61%. Learners, please looks at the inner wave counts of ED carefully. This impulse can be wave (A or 1).

38%-61%-78% retracement of this whole impulse (from 7916-8250) is placed at 8122-8043-7987 where 38% is already achieved.

Further, it seems an Irregular Correction pattern is in progress after 8250 with inner wave (A) completed from 8250-8056 as impulse, wave (B) may be completed from 8056-8274 as Irregular wave (wave (B) broken the start of (A)) and wave (C) may be in progress.

Wave (C) is always an impulse and we generally see wave (C) to project till end of (A) which is 8056. So, this pattern is indicating a decline towards 8056 and pattern of decline must be impulse.

And further, if I am right at identifying the pattern and it is really Irregular Correction in progress then we can see a very sharp bounce of 350-500 points after completion of this Irregular Correction around 8056.

Read the details article explaining pattern, personality, calculations and effects of Irregular Correction at Irregular Correction of Elliott Wave Theory Explained by Deepak Kumar

Now, let’s analyze progress of wave (C) (started from 8274) of expected Irregular Correction separately on 5 minutes chart.

Elliott wave counts of nifty for 14 Dec 2016

Elliott wave counts of nifty for 14 Dec 2016

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from 9 Dec high 8274.

It seems impulse is completed from 8274-8255 which could be wave (a or 1) or this impulse can also be inner wave (c) of any Irregular Correction. 61% retracement of this impulse is placed at 8228 and Nifty registered the exact high of 8228 yesterday, so may be some sort of corrective wave is completed at 8228 and new downward impulse started.

Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (A or 1) is placed at 8109-8080 which is the expected range if wave (B or 2) completed at 8228.

Further, bounce from 8155-8228 is not showing any confident corrective pattern but some sort of wave (iii) or (c) seems started from 8173 because of its speed and personality. And 38% retracement of expected wave (c) or (3) is placed at 8206 which is the points we can refer to plan next trading strategy.

Conclusion:

For medium term, there is possibility of Irregular Correction pattern and Nifty have possibility to bounce sharply by 350-500 points after completion of Irregular Correction near 8056 if I am right at identifying the pattern.

Read the details article explaining pattern, personality, calculations and effects of Irregular Correction at Irregular Correction of Elliott Wave Theory Explained by Deepak Kumar

For Intraday/Very short term, there are possibilities for both bounce above 8274 and decline towards 8109-8080 and 8206 is the general reference point between both these possibilities. And we need to keep both medium term and short term scenario to plan our next trading strategy.

For Trading Point of View:

For medium term, If nifty decline sharply towards 8056 then both Nifty Jan 2017 7500 Put and 8500 Call can be bought in equal quantity for 5-10 Days and there is a possibility for good bounce of 350-500 points or a good decline below 7916. Any stoploss can be calculated later after seeing the conformation of pattern. Traders who like to trade in Nifty Futures can wait for the conformation of completion of pattern to initiate trade.

For Short Term/Intraday,

  1. If “Nifty breaks below 8206” and “trades below opening price at 9:31 AM” (both conditions must match) then sell Nifty with stoploss of day’s high (made till 9:31 AM). Expected downward targets are 8173-8155 and then 8109-8080. Manage trade with trailing stoploss after getting profit more than stoploss.
  1. If “Nifty breaks above 8228” and “trades above opening price at 9:31 AM” (both conditions must match) then buy Nifty with stoploss of day’s low (made till 9:31 AM). Expected upward targets are 8255-8274 and above. Manage trade with trailing stoploss after getting profit more than stoploss.

Nifty Intraday Trading Strategy based on opening price at 9:31 AM

Many of my Elliott Wave book subscribers ask about Intraday Trading Strategy I mention sometime in my analysis reports to initiate at 9:31 AM because this strategy is not mentioned in my “Elliott Wave Book”.

“Nifty if traded above opening price at 9:31 AM then buy with stoploss of low made till 9:31 AM AND Nifty if traded below opening price at 9:31 AM then sell with stoploss of high made till 9:31 AM.

I want to inform that this strategy is not based on Elliott Wave Theory but based on price action. And this strategy is part of my other book on Day Trading titled “NSE Stocks Intraday Trading Techniques”.

These trading strategies works best in trendy market and works better on stocks but can be used on index also. I use it on index when waves or not clear but I am expecting a big move on either side OR when I have targets but don’t have small stoploss and you must have observed that it works most of the time.

So at last, This trading strategy is not based on Elliott Wave Theory so I have not mentioned it in my “EW Book” but I suggest trades based on this strategy in my reports as bonus when conditions are better and waves are supporting for this strategy.

The link to details of book “NSE Stocks Intraday Trading Techniques”is http://sweeglu.com/stock-trading-strategies-ebook/.

Click Here to Learn Practical Application of Elliott Wave Theory  in real time trading/investment from the deep experience and true knowledge of Deepak Kumar .

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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