Nifty opened mild gap up today at 7725 followed by a small decline till 7715 but bounced sharply from lower levels and traded with strength for rest of the day. Finally Nifty closed 50 points up at 7750 after giving high of 7776.
Yesterday we expected a minimum upside of 7707-7733 which achieved at opening only where I suggested to book part profit or trail stoploss. I mentioned that Nifty needs to open gap up and move faster above 7733 to gain the personality of wave (3) otherwise there are cautions for decline. Nifty achieved 7733 at opening only and moved faster above 7733 and achieved next 161% projection placed exactly at 7776. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts.
Today’s I am showing wave counts from 02 Dec 2015 high 7979 as previous counts are same as I explained in my last report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for the Week Starting 14 Dec 2015.
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 02 Dec high 7979 which I am expecting as start of wave (5) or (C).
There is no change in these wave counts, it seems wave (3) completed at 7606 followed by 23%-38% correction till 7703 as wave (4) and last wave (5) seems completed at 7551 which projected just above 38%.
Now, the bounce after 7551 looks like an impulsive move which already achieved 38% projection after breaking above 7714 whereas 61% is placed at 7815 which may be achieved in next session.
Now, let’s analyze this impulsive bounce started from 7551 on separate 5 minutes chart.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after Monday’s low 7551.
Today’s gap up followed by sharp rise and nature of pattern formed at top is indicating this move as impulse. So, it may be,
- Wave (1) completed from 7551-7663.
- Wave (2) completed from 7663-7595 as simple (ABC) which retraced exactly 61% of (1).
- Wave (3) is in progress from 7595 which projected exactly 161% till now after touching 7776.
And within wave (3), it seems inner wave (i) completed at 7760, (ii) completed at 7625 as Flat Correction, (iii) completed at 7776, (iv)completed at 7734 as Simple Zigzag which retraced 23% and wave (v) may be started from 7734. Now, wave (v) of (3) needs to project minimum 38%-61% which is placed at 7803-7845 whereas 100% projection is placed at 7915.
Students/Learners, Please read all the wave counts on this 5 minute chart carefully and try to understand it. Understanding these counts will help greatly to identify intraday trading opportunities.
Let’s have a look at today’s intraday move on 1 minutes chart to see if there was any intraday trading opportunity.
This is 1 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering intraday move of 16 Dec 2015.
Yesterday I also mentioned that If Nifty opened gap up and trade below opening price at 9:31 AM then Nifty can be sold with high as stoploss. And also mentioned that Nifty should not consolidate within 7707-7733 range for long time, and Nifty must move faster above 7733 to gain personality of wave (3).
Nifty opened at 7725 but was trading around 7725 at 9:31 didn’t show clarity but after some time Nifty broke above high 7734 after making ‘abc’ pattern, it was buy opportunity with 10-15 points stoploss. Later it bounced sharply marking it impulsive move. And 7767-7778 was profit booking range which was 38%-61% projection of wave (5) at the time.
The decline from high 7776-7734 looks like Simple Zigzag (abc) which is wave (iv) on 5 minutes chart. And after 7734, there is an impulse like bounce followed by “abc” correction which may be wave (1) and (2). So, if the pattern I shown on chart is right then Nifty can open gap up tomorrow as wave (3).
This pattern will negate if Nifty break below 7733, so very immediate stoploss for any longs must be 7733.
Students/Learners again please read the wave counts on this chart carefully and try to understand it.
By seeing all the conditions on charts, Nifty has possibility to bounce minimum till 7803-7845 range which may also extend to 7915 if wave (v) of (3) goes extended.
On downside, even a touch of 7733 will negate this pattern, so stoploss for immediate longs must be 7733 now. We need to see nature of latest wave pattern if Nifty break below 7733. 38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 7718. Any downward reversal can be seen after break below 7663.
Any trade can be decided only during live market hours after seeing latest waves based on above mentioned conditions.
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