Elliott Wave Outlook of Trading Strategy of Nifty for 11 April 2017

| April 11, 2017

Nifty opened higher at 9225 but failed to sustain at higher levels and traded with negative bias for rest of the day. Nifty declined to register day’s low 9174 and finally closed 16 points down at 9181.

Yesterday, 9177 was breakeven point on downside and 9219 was breakeven point on upside. I suggested to buy Nifty even if touch 9221 using stoploss of 9199 but stoploss of 9199 was triggered and Nifty also touch medium term breakeven point 9177. Let’s have a fresh look at latest chart for further scenario.

Today I am covering bounce from  low 9019 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis and Outlook of Nifty for 10 April 2017 Onward

Elliott wave targets of Nifty for 11 April 2017

Elliott wave targets of Nifty for 11 April 2017

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 9019 which I am expecting as progress of wave (v) on previous 30 minute chart.

It seems, wave (1) may be completed from 9019-9131 (inner wave (v) is highly extended), wave (2) may be completed from 9131-9024 as Irregular Correction, wave (3) may be completed from 9024-9273 and  wave (4) may be in progress.

In my last report, I explained that wave (3) may be completed at 9149 but the decline from high 9273 was not indicating any big reversal and bounce from 9024-9273 is still straight without any reasonable correction. So, maybe it is wave (3) completed at 9273 and wave (5) is still pending. Inner waves of recent move are not identifiable which is making it difficult to identify exact pattern.

Now, if wave (3) completed at 9273 than 23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 9214-9177. So, 9177 is the point we can refer as medium term breakeven or reversal and is already touched yesterday.

So, let’s have a separate look at decline from 9273 on 15 minute chart to get confirmation.

Elliott wave targets of Nifty for 11 April 2017

Elliott wave targets of Nifty for 11 April 2017

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from all time high 9273.

The decline from 9273-9220 look like an impulse which could be wave (A or 1), bounce from 9220-9267 looks 3-3-5 Flat correction which can be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress from 9267 which must be impulse.

Pattern of wave (C or 3) looks like an impulse but inner waves are not clear so we needs to take the help of Fibonacci Calculations. Now, 38% retracement of wave (C or 3) is placed at 9209 which can taken as reference point of stoploss of shorts and breakeven point for very short term. Nifty if breaks above 9209 can bounce further for new high above 9273.

Conclusion:

Nifty is consolidating near all time high since last week without any sharp decline. Medium term reversal point 9177 touched yesterday but pattern of decline is not convincing for any good decline at the moment of time. So, we need to wait for a last confirmation to decide confident move.

Fibonacci Calculations wise, 9177 is the level with can refer as breakeven or reversal point for downside. And 9209 is the breakeven point above which Nifty can bounce further for new high above 9273. And we needs to keep all these conditions in mind while initiating any trade.

Trading Point of View:

Nifty is at breakeven point from where it can show a good decline towards 9019 or a bounce above new high 9273 in coming days whereas 9177 is the breakeven point for downside and 9209 is the breakeven point for upside. So, we need to trade according to these levels and conditions.

  1. Nifty if “breaks below 9174” and “trade below opening price at 9:31 AM” (both conditions must match) then Nifty can be sold using stoploss of 9209 expecting downward target 9019. Better to trade in 9300 Put based on these levels.
  1. Nifty if “breaks above 9209” and “trades above opening price at 9:31 AM” (both conditions must match) then Nifty can be bought using stoploss of 9177 expecting upside target 9273-9330. Better to trade in Nifty Futures based on these levels.

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Category: Bank Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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