Nifty opened higher at 9104 and registered the low of 9089 but traded with strength for rest of the day. Nifty bounced more than 40 points to registered day’s high 9133 before closing 21 points up at 9108.
Yesterday, 9074 was the fresh stoploss for longs and bounce towards 9131-9141 was expected. Suggested to hold longs with fresh stoploss of 9074 expecting minimum upside target 9131-9141. Nifty achieved 9131-9141 on Friday without breaking 9074. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
Today I am covering bounce from 29 Feb 2016 low 7893 and earlier wave counts are explained in my “All Time Frame” analysis report Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on All Time Frames – Long Term Outlook
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 29 Feb 2016 low 6825. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report as there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
I am not showing any particular wave counts on this chart because there are lots of possibilities and exact pattern is not clear.
Wave’s structure wise, there is a straight wave from 6825-8968 followed by 38%-61% correction followed by new wave upside from 7893. It can be wave (5) or (C) or (3) started from 8327, so 38%-61%-100% projection of the same wave is placed at 8711-9217-10036 whereas 9217 is already achieved.
Let’s have a closer look at wave started from 7893 on separate chart.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 26 Dec 2016 low 7893.
Same as I had explained in my earlier reports, bounce after 7893 is also steep without even 38% correction in between. Only a small correction from 8461-8327 is visible within this bounce, so it may be wave (a or 1) completed from 7893-8461, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 8461-8327 and wave (3) may be may be already completed at 8218 or still in progress. Wave (3) already projected more than 161%.
23%-38% retracement of wave (c or 3) progressed till now is placed at 9007-8877 which is the minimum expected range on downside if Nifty have to decline. Breaking below 8877 with formation of downward impulsive pattern can also trigger bigger fall towards 7893 (we need to see formation of pattern below 8877 in this case).
Now, let’s have a separate look at pattern formation of decline from all time high 9218 for very short term scenario.
This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from all time high 9218.
It seems an impulse is completed from 9218-9019 with extended wave (5). Wave (5) started from 9131 projected more than 61%, thus an extended wave (5). 38%-61% retracement of this impulse is place at 9095-9141 whereas Nifty already registered high of 9133.
We often see that extended wave (5) retrace 100% with speed, so there were chances for a quick bounce towards 9131 (start of extended wave 5) which is already happened. So, we need to look at the pattern of bounce after 9019.
When we look at the bounce from recent low 9019 then it seems wave (a or 1) completed from 9019-9074, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 9074-9048 and wave (c or 3) is in progress from 9048. Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 9103-9125 which is already achieved.
If we look at progress of wave (c or 3) [started from 9048) then it seems inner wave (iv) is completed at 9099 and (v) is in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection of wave (v) is placed at 9131-9151 which is the range from where we can see a small of big correction.
On the other hand, 38% retracement of wave (c or 3) [started from 9048] is placed at 9099 which is the point we can refer as Breakeven Points/reversal point for tomorrow/very short term.
Nifty bounced from lower levels and achieved 9131-9141 as we expected 2 sessions back. Now, 9131-9151 is the range from where Nifty can give a Pause or some correction. And on downside, 9099 is the point which we can refer as reversal point of stoploss for longs. Breaking much below 9099 can initiate further decline towards 9048-9018.
So, we need to keep all these conditions in mind to initiate fresh trade.
Trading Point of View:
- For Intraday/short term, those who already holding the longs can use 9089 (10 points below 9099) as fresh stoploss for longs expecting upside targets 9133-9151.
- Nifty if get in 9133-9151 range then Nifty March 9150 put can be bought using stoploss of 9171 (20 points above 9151) expecting targets 9048-9018.
- Nifty if even touch 9089 then Nifty March 9100 Put can be bought using stoploss of 9131 expecting downside targets 9018 and below.
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