Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 10 April 2018 Onward

| April 9, 2018

Nifty opened flat at 10333, registered low 10290 but bounced from lower levels and traded with strength for rest of the day. Nifty bounced to register day’s high 10397 and finally closed 47 points up at 10397.

Friday, short term outlook was bullish with 10293-10258 as support range on downside and 10389-10454 as expected target range on upside in coming days. Light longs were suggested on decline near breakeven point 10258 using stoploss of 10239.

Nifty traded with positive bias and achieved expected upside range 10389-10454 but without touching support range. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am covering decline after all time high 11171 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last All Time Frames analysis report Nifty is Still Bullish for Medium and Long Term – Fresh EW Analysis on All Time Frames

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on 5 hour chart

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on 5 hour chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from all time high 11171 which I had marked as end of inner wave (b) of {iv of 3 of [v] of [3] of (iii) of (3)} on larger time frame. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave (1) completed at 10979, (2) completed at 11117, (3) completed at 10276, (4) completed at 10637 and wave (5) may be completed at 9951 or still in progress.

Wave 5 achieved 61%-100% projection and already a highly extended wave but its pattern is not clear. So, we can’t say confidently if wave 5 completed or still in progress.

If wave 5 is already completed then 38%-61% retracement of this whole impulse (from 11171-9951) is placed at 10417-10704. Though this impulse started from 11171 we are expecting as wave (C) of Irregular correction which is indicating new high above 11171 but 10417-10794 are step by step levels.

Now, we are not confident if downward impulse already completed at 9951 or still in progress. SO, we need to concentrate on progress of bounce started from 9951 to calculate immediate further moves.

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on 30 minute chart

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on 30 minute chart

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 9951 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave (A or 1) completed from 9951-10229, wave (B or 2) completed from 10229-10111 as Irregular Correction and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Normal 100%-123% projection of wave (C or 3) is placed at 10389-10454 is the normal range for completion of wave (C or 3).

Wave (C or 3) is very sharp making it difficult to count inner waves, but 23%-38% retracement of this whole wave is placed at 10329-10287. So, 10329-10287 is immediate support on downside and 10287 is breakeven point below which we can expect further decline.

Let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (C or 3) started from 10111 to see if we can identify something for very short term/immediate scenario.

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on 15 minute chart

Elliott wave analysis of nifty on 15 minute chart

This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 10111 which I marked as start of wave (C or 3) on 30 minute chart.

Inner waves of this move are not completely clear, I have marked the counts but I am not convinced with it. But we can identify an Irregular Correction at top from 10391-10361 followed by inner wave (1) and (2) of next impulse from 10361-10397-10364. (Please look carefully at 15 minute chart).

Now, inner wave (1) is from 10361-10397 which is of 36 points. And we can expect whole impulse (waves 1 to 5) as minimum 3 times of inner wave (1). So, if wave (1) is 36 points then whole impulse can be of more than 100 points. So, we can expect this wave started from 10361 to complete somewhere above 10461 if I am right at identifying the pattern.

10361 can be used as exact stoploss for any longs.

Conclusion

For long term, Nifty is still bullish and has long way to go as explained in my last “All Time Frames” report but we are not sure if bottom is already made or still pending. Nifty can bounce from present levels also and Maximum estimated bottom range is 9800-9600 based on Fibonacci retracements.

For short term, 10329-10287 is fresh immediate support range on downside and 10389-10454 is normal expected range on upside. Nifty already achieved 10389 and next 10454 may or may not be achieved. 10287 is short term breakeven point on downside below which we can think of any downward reversal.

But the innermost pattern formed at top is also indicating further bounce towards 10461 without touching 10360 (please read 15 minute chart carefully).

So overall, there is possibility for Nifty to bounce further towards 10454-10361 or above without breaking below 10361 and we need to keep all these conditions in mind while planning next trade.

Trading Points of View:

For Intraday or very short term, Nifty if even touch 10398 then light longs can be initiate using exact stoploss of 10359 (02 points below 10361) expecting minimum target 10454-10361 soon which further can extend even higher. If Nifty breaks 10361 then 10287 is the next short term breakeven point.

I suggested a general low risk trade based on present conditions. Traders can also plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above with their own experience.

BANK NIFTY ANALYSIS

“Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty” with “Bank Nifty Weekly Options Trading Strategies” Daily is also provided by one of my personally trained student Vinod Sharma on his website http://www.ewanalyst.com/ Links to some of his analysis Reports are: –

Tags: , ,

Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

Comments are closed.