Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 07 Nov 2017 Onward

| November 7, 2017

Nifty opened lower at 10431, registered low 10413 and bounced back by more than 70 points to register new all time high 10490 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined back below 10430. Nifty finally closed flat at 10450.

Yesterday, I mentioned that outlook of Nifty is positive as there is no sign of reversal but there are cautions for small or big decline from 10490-10530 range. I suggested to book maximum profit of longs in 10461-10481 range. I also suggested to buy Nov 10600 Put if get Nifty in 10490-10530 range with stoploss of 10533.

Correction happened exactly from 10490 and 10600 Nov put bounced from 144 to 180+ and closed at 178. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Today I am covering bounce from 28 Sep 2017 low 9687 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 16 Oct 2017 Onward

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Hourly Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Hourly Chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from low 9687 which I marked as start of new upside impulse.

May be wave (1) completed from 9786-9945, (2) completed from 9945-9881 and wave (3) may be in progress from 9881. Further within wave (3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 9881-10015, (ii) completed from 10015-9955 as Irregular correction, (iii) may be completed at from 9955-10251, (iv) may be completed from 10251-10123 and (v) may be in progress.

Wave (v) of (3) already achieved 61% projection after breaking above 10351 whereas next 100% projection is placed at 10493. Nifty achieved 10490 till now.

38% retracement of progress of wave (3) started from 9881 is placed at 10257. So, 10257 is the medium term breakeven point below which we can expect any medium term reversal.

Now, let’s analyse the progress of wave (v) of (3) started from 10123 on separate 30 minute chart for short term levels.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 30 minute Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 30 minute Chart

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Nifty bounce after 24 Oct low 10124 which I marked at start of wave 5 on 30 minute chart.

It seems inner wave 1 of (v) completed from 10124-10236, 2 completed from 10236- 10183, wave 3 may be completed from 10183-10383, wave 4 may be completed from 10383-10323 and wave 5 may be in progress.

Wave 5 already achieved 61% projection placed at 10483 and next 100% projection is placed at 10583 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave 5 started from 10323 on lowest possible time frame chart.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 15 minute Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 15 minute Chart

This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 10323 which I had marked as start of wave 5 of (v) on 30 minute chart.

It seems inner wave (i) completed at 10361, (ii) completed at 10328, (iii) completed at 10450, wave (iv) may be completed at 10403 and wave (v) may be in progress.

Wave (v) already achieved 61% projection placed at 10481 and next 100% projection is placed at 10530 which may or may not be achieved.

Wave (v) achieved minimum projections but there Nifty formed a 3 waves move at top. There possibility Irregular Correction pattern at top which opened the possibility of one more high above 10490.

Conclusion

Nifty registered new life time high 10490 but again, there is no sign of reversal on charts yet. 10257 is medium term breakeven point below which we can think of any medium term reversal.

Though, all the waves within the pattern achieved its minimum requirements, even most of the waves are expended but the possibility of Irregular Correction pattern at top formed today is indicating one more high above 10490.

Overall, the sentiments are still bullish for one more bounce above 10490 but higher levels are warning cautions because most of the inner waves of pattern are extended.

Trading Point of View:

The outlook of Nifty is still bullish as there is no sign of reversal and there is possibility for one more high above 10490. But higher levels are also warning cautions for small or big correction. So, short term trading strategy must be “Buying on Dips” until 10491 is achieved but with cautions at higher levels.

  1. Nifty 10600 Nov put bought today at 10490 must be booked/exited and wait for next opportunity because there is possibility for one more high above 10490. We can enter this trade again if conditions favours.
  1. For short term, Nifty if get in 10413-10403 range then Nifty 10300 Nov Call can be bought using stoploss of 10389 expecting targets above 10490. Buy Call in very light quantity and with strict stoploss because higher levels are also warning cautions for decline. Avoid this trade if Nifty achieves 10490 before 10413.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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