Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 05 Nov 2015

| November 4, 2015

Nifty opened gap up today at 8104 and bounced sharply till 8116 but failed to sustain at higher levels and traded with negative bias for rest of the day to decline till 8027 before closing 20 points down at 8040. Nifty opened well above our minimum upside target of 8099 but break below trailing stoploss of 8077 later and fell 50 more points after that. Let’s have fresh look on latest chart.

Today I am covering wave counts from last week high 8336 and read my previous report Most Probable Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty as on 02 Nov 2015 for previous wave counts.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Nov Expiry

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Nov Expiry

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move last week high 8336. Again, there was not even a 23% correction within this whole decline from 8336-7997 which makes it difficult to identify waves. We can just identify small ‘abc’ Simple Zigzag and Irregular correction in between but tough to identify downward impulses. Still I tried to show most probable counts.

May be impulse completed from 8336-7996 as shown on chart and corrective or impulsive bounce has been started. Minimum 23%-38% bounce we can expect after completion of downward impulse which is I also motioned in my last 3 reports.

Nifty already achieved minimum 23% after breaking above 8076 whereas 38% and 61% retracement is placed at 8125 and 8206 respectively which may or may not be achieved. We need to look at wave pattern of the bounce started from 7997 on 5 minutes chart to analyze further scenario.

Other Possibility: We didn’t see even a 23% bounce within this whole decline from 8336-7997, so may be some sort of downward wave (3) completed at 7997. Nifty can fall further 140-250 points from latest high if it is just wave (3) complete at 7997.

Now, let’s have a look at bounce from Friday’s low 7997 on 5 minutes chart for further scenario: 

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after Friday’s low 7997.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Nov Expiry

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for Nov Expiry

As we expected yesterday that, bounce from 7997-8099 was fast and steep and most probably it is wave (3) completed at 8099 followed by wave (4) at 8336 which retraced exactly 61% of whole bounce from 7997-8099 and further wave (5) needs to break above 8099 once again which may also extend till 8125-8138 .

Now, it seems an impulse is completed from 7997-8116 as shown on chart and further decline looks like a simple ‘abc’ correction till now.  So, this upside impulse from 7997-8116 may be wave (A or 1) and decline from 8116-8028 may be wave (B or 2) and further wave (C or 3) needs to break above 8116 and may extend to 8146-8191.   

But, Nifty should not break below 7995 to validate this pattern. So, stoploss for any longs must be 7994. Break below 7995 may take Nifty to 7986-7906.

Today’s Intraday Trading Opportunity:

Today Nifty broke below 8077 after breaking 8099 which was our trailing stoploss and the decline from 8116-8072 was Impulse. We have seen an “abc” correction from 8072-8090. Previously we were expecting bounce from 8036 as wave (5) which gone extended after breaking 8099 (61% Projection) and extended 5th often retrace completely.

So, there were trading opportunity for sell on rise after breaking below 8077 using stoploss of high (8116) for minimum target 8036 which was the start of wave (5). But these type of Intraday trading opportunities can be identifies during live market hours only. That’s why it is important to learn it yourself to identify market moves and best trading opportunities. It is not always easy to identify low risk entry levels and stoploss in advance. 

Conclusion:

Nifty have possibility to bounce again above 8116, may be till 8146-8191 if the pattern I identified is correct. So, there is low risk opportunity to Buy Nifty on declines till 8000 with stoploss of 7995 and we can expect minimum 8116-8146 for upside.

If break below 7995 then exit longs and look for buying opportunity in 7986-7906 range again for 100-180 points bounce as breaking below 7995 can fall further to 7986-7906 from where Nifty can some bounce again.

Exact entry levels and best trading opportunity can be identified only during live market hour after seeing latest wave patterns on 5 minute chart. It is difficult to calculate exact entry levels in advance when market is range bound and sideways. Those you learned and understood Elliott Wave Theory can make better use of these market conditions for intraday swing trades during live market hours.

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Category: Nifty

About the Author ()

Deepak Kumar is an independent Technical Analyst, regular practitioner and Trainer of Elliott wave theory applying Elliott's Wave Principles on Indian Markets successfully since 2011 and made many accurate predictions. He is also the author of book "Practical Application of Elliott's Wave Principles by Deepak Kumar"

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